Two former teammates turned MVP contenders are in the different position than four years ago when the Houston Rockets and the Oklahoma City Thunder last played a playoff series. Back then, it was Harden who wouldn’t give up the rock feeling that his supporting cast isn’t on a desired level. Years passed and Houston had built a team, while Thunder suffered from an annual erosion, leaving Westbrook thinking he needs to go do everything alone and more. This NBA Playoffs series generates the most media attention, so it’s make or break for both teams.
NBA Playoffs: Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets
LINE: Houston -7 (-109); moneyline -294
Total: 228.5 (-102 over, -104 under)
Thunder survive Durant’s departure by giving Westbrook free role
Once a team that has Westbrook, Harden, Durant and Ibaka, the Oklahoma City Thunder (47-35) was supposed to become a new NBA dynasty. They’ve played a relevant factor in each of the previous playoffs, reaching conference and NBA Finals, but the small market and tight budget shortened the time of success and stars left.
The only one that remained, Russell Westbrook, was given the keys of the city and he managed to lead the team back into the playoffs. He did it the only way he knows how, charging at the opponents defenses at full speed as many times as he needs to break them down. It usually wears players down and we’ve seen players that carried their teams on their backs suffer crush a knee or a back, but Westbrook being such a physical phenomena somehow managed to play out the entire season without slowing down.
Westbrook led the league in points (31.6), field goal attempts (24) and triple-doubles (42), and was top 3 in free throw attempts (10.4), assists (10.4), and turnovers (5.4). Even with him giving everything he had, the Thunder roamed around .500 near the All-Star week, so the front office brought more help in Gibson and McDermott, fearing that Sabonis isn’t good enough to play the starting role.
It was a good move, even though the new (or old) faces haven’t had much influence on the game play. The Thunder now have three starters who don’t need much ball to play – Robertson, Adams and Gibson. If it proves to create problems on the offensive end, bench reinforcements of Kanter and McDermott are the total opposites.
The Thunder go as far as Westbrook goes, and judging by the regular season, it’s about half-way. They are top offensive rebounding team, but other than that, the Thunder are an average team. They play at an average pace, score 106.6 points per game and are in the middle when it comes to defense and points allowed (105.8). Oladipo, Kanter and Adams score in double digits and are the most important players other than Westbrook. None of them is a good outside shooter, including Westbrook, and Robertson couldn’t become what they had hoped for, a 3-and-D wing, so they bring in Alex Abrines and McDermott for some long range shooting. In the playoffs, where flaws are highlighted, the opponents are going to pack the paint and let Thunder players throw bricks from 25 feet out. This reasoning is beyond D’Antoni’s capabilities, so it’s unlikely that the Thunder will be stopped by the Rockets who rest on defense and play at a hectic pace, so there will be attempts and points to be had.
Place: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
Date/Time: Sunday April 16th, 2017. 9:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: ABC
Houston Rockets benefit from the changing of the NBA
League wide change in style of play spurned by the Warriors’ success actually benefited the Houston Rockets (55-27) the most. A team who struggled to get much by playing just when the ball was in their hands were suddenly a king among the myriad of teams who are trying to change how they play. Everybody was pushing the tempo, launching threes and resting on defense, and few could do it better than the Rockets who are already doing it for years and have the roster built this way.
It’s a dream scenario and the Houston Rockets made sure to seize the opportunity. Fresh off a forgettable 41-41 season and the first round exit, Houston have let Howard walk and used the cap space increase to bring more shooters in, signing Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson before the season.
Once they realized the system works in the new environment, the Rockets added Lou Williams to shoot even more long range shots. Already launching more than 30 three pointers per game in 2016, the new set up have put up an incredible 3306 deep shots during this season, annihilating NBA record. To put it in perspective, the Rockets attempted 527 more three than Cleveland, who happen to be 2nd in attempted 3’s this season.
Unsurprisingly, the best player on a team almost everyone is looking to imitate is going to have a MVP-caliber season. James Harden, freed from loathed shackles of staying with his man on defense, enjoyed the spotlight, scoring 29.1 points per game, dishing 11.2 assists and grabbing 8.1 rebounds per game. He is the first player ever to score 2,000 points and assists for another 2,000 in the same season.
The Rockets have amazing 10 players scoring over 9 points per game as they put up 115.3 points on average. It’s very hard to counter that, so the opposition scores 5.8 points less each night, despite shooting a tad more efficiently than the Rockets. They make the difference by shooting and hitting 3-pointers, but are also successful going to the line, aided by Harden’s knack for drawing contact on his drives to the rim.
While Harden is their de facto playmaker, the Houston Rockets have the luxury of playing Patrick Beverley alongside. He’s a crucial cog in this match-up as he’ll take on Westbrook and try to limit his productivity. He is certainly capable of defending at a high level, but Westbrook scored 49 and 39 on him the last two games they played against each other, so don’t count much on it.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets Game 1 Game Trends & Prediction
The expectations for post-Durant OKC were never great and it reflects on their ATS record of 45-36-1. All the success came in home games though, where they went 26-14-1 against the spread. They managed to either slightly beat the spread, or lose by much, so they’ve won more games than they should by their unimpressive point differential. They are believed to be much more dynamic than they actually are, so it’s not surprising to have them play more unders, 37-44-1 against the projected line for the season and 2-8 in the last ten. Their away O/U record is 16-24 this season.
Houston Rockets has gone 42-40 ATS this season, but were making money until the last 9 games to end it, where they’ve failed to cover once, and going 0-9 against the spread. They were stuck at the 3rd place after two losses to Golden State at the end of the March, so they weren’t very interested in winning in April. Still, it’s a bad streak. The books have also caught up with their scoring, so the Rockets show a season O/U records of 41-40-1 overall and 22-19 at home.
Houston won the regular season series 3-1, but the first three meetings were decided by one shot. It’s hard to blame the early punters who took Oklahoma City on that account, and considering the ugly ATS streak the Rockets bring in the first game. Still, it’s the first game. Home court advantage is high and when teams can score in 120s, 7 point spread that Houston has been favored by aren’t as large as when the points are hard to come by. Smart money will be with the Rockets, as the fair spread should be -8.5/-9. Total is well set. Points aren’t likely to drop much on Houston games as they won’t back away from their style just because it’s the playoffs. My projection says 229.5, and McDermott is questionable to play, so that’s about it. Skip total and take the Rockets.
My Pick: Houston -7 (-109)
Total: Pass
