The Oklahoma City Thunder will look to avoid elimination on Tuesday when they travel to face the 3-1 leading Houston Rockets in Texas, after a tough home loss. Houston couldn’t prove that they are clearly a better team, but managed to end all three close games on a high note and had Harden’s Game 3 buzzer attempt went in, they would already be in the next round.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets Game 5
LINE: Houston -7.5 (-110); moneyline -337
Total: 223 (-106o, -106u)
Poor decision making costs the Thunder dearly
The Oklahoma City are going to regret the missed opportunity to even the series up and while they were a shot from elimination, they could have easily be in the lead as well if they would have executed better in the fourth quarter. They were in a great position to win Game 4 as it started developing in the same manner as the last one.
The Thunder were energized early and have built a double digit lead in the first quarter. Even though the Houston Rockets managed to drop some shots to narrow the margin, the Thunder were completely in control, playing together of both the offensive end and the defensive end. They even started the second half on a great run, extending the lead to 14-points before all the momentum has been lost by 5 consecutive terrible decisions made by Westbrook that allowed Houston to return into the game.
It avalanched from there for the OKC Thunder, as they took awful shots and forced passes and drives into traffic. The Thunder got all confused by the Rockets tactics to hack Roberson, a very poor free throw shooter.
The Thunder did most of the damage to themselves. They were careless to foul three-point shooters, committed dumb turnovers and forced thing playing too much one-on-one basketball. They would have lost by more points if not for some lucky threes at the end of the game, as their game collapsed in the final 18 minutes. Nothing prior to it suggested that it may happen.
Westbrook had a triple double by halftime, pushing the ball in transition, finding his teammates in good spots. His shot was a bit off, but he didn’t force anything. Roberson was a dominant force on defense. He completely shut down James Harden and was able to play great help defense as well, blocking 5 shots in the first half and altering more.
The second unit couldn’t match the Rockets reserves, but wasn’t terrible either. It all made sense up until the bad Westbrook appeared on the surface yet again. He got overzealous after a great couple of minutes at the start of the third and his emotions took over. He took a couple of ill-advised deep jumpers that missed badly and had three bad passes. It started a 5 minute scoreless period for the Thunder, a too long of a drought to maintain the lead. The Thunder players got tentative and it lured Westbrook in taking more bad shots, stopping the ball movement and ultimately a tough loss.
He finished with 35 points, 14 rebounds and 14 assists, but shot just 10-28 from the field. Of the 15 fourth quarter points, 6 came on two desperation three pointers and the 7 on the free throws that were mostly refereeing gifts. Roberson had a terrible ending to the game after fantastic first half, as he shot 2-of-12 from the charity stripe and was visibly for it by the game’s end.
Coach Donovan was also too slow to react and get him out of the game. The Thunder got nothing offensively from their power forward duo of Gibson and Kanter, but Gibson continued to play excellent D as the main guy protecting the roll. As a team, OKC played excellent defense (except for some dumb fouling late), holding the Rockets to 43.5 percent shooting and Harden to just 15 points, 0-7 on threes and 7 turnovers. They undid it all by 18-of-32 free throw shooting and 17 turnovers of their own.
Place: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
Date/Time: Tuesday April 25th, 2017. 8:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: TNT, FSN
Reserves win one for the Rockets
The Houston Rockets proved that they are a more complete team. They got contribution from the entire rotation on a day when their star was not allowed to play and couldn’t hit shots under pressure. As much as Harden is a viable MVP candidate, he was the worst Rockets player (expect Capela, who was terrible again), exposed on defense and neutralized on offense. Yet the attention he creates on the offense opened up more space and chances for others and they knew what to make out from it. He realized that it wasn’t his game and let the other play, and they responded. Four other players had at least 12 field goal attempts and Harden was just the fourth leading scorer for the Rockets in Game 4.
The three players who entered the game from the bench were amazing. Nene used his size in the paint to score 28 points on a perfect 12-of-12 shooting, also pulling down 10 rebounds in just 25 minutes of play. In addition, Nene played excellent defense even when taken out far from the rim. Gordon and Williams did their part as well.
They managed to drive to the paint instead of Harden, moving the defense to create space and posed the outside threat. Each scored 18 points on 5-of-13 shooting, but also pulled in 15 rebounds and fought more physical Thunder players on the defense. Ariza also found hit deep shot for the first time in the series and was ready to be more aggressive this time. Beverly did a fair job on Westbrook but couldn’t hit his shots on the other end.
Despite the win, there are many reasons for concern. The offense is stagnant with Harden being trapped, and the Houston Rockets don’t move the ball from side to side. This was apparent in the previous games, but it’s even more present as the series is progressing. Also, they were able to hide Harden on Roberson on the defensive end, but the Thunder figured out how to get him involved with Roberson screening for Westbrook – an action that we’ll see even more in the next game.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets Game 5 Trends & Prediction
The OKC Thunder were favored to win the last game but failed to do so. They’ve been unable to beat the small spread in the first home game, so they fell to 46-39-1 against the spread. The Houston Rockets clearly have their number, as they managed to cover only two times in the last 10 meetings with them. Despite all the late fouling and threes, the game ended in a narrow under. It gives the Thunder a 39-46-1 record in total point market and they play even higher percentage of unders when away, going 17-25 this season.
The Houston Rockets scored 113 in both Oklahoma City games, and have created more points in transition, but the pace of the game is still low and the under simply had to strike in this game. They are shooting just 31.8 percent from the three point range during this series, 4 percent off their regular season mark. They are also shooting less threes, as they are struggling to find as many good shots from the perimeter as they did before. They are 43-42 against the over/under and 23-20 at home. Against the spread, Houston have a 45-41 seasonal record, but are just 19-24 at home.
Fifth game of the series is a great opportunity for the home team to deliver the knockout, but elimination games are always tough and the Rockets haven’t been able to play their best in this series after the first game. The spread is set at 8-points, as in the first two games played in Houston, and the early tendency shows more money on the away team, so it will likely end up as a 7.5 difference. That’s close to a fair number. I had to adjust for the Game 4 play and tactics so I’m going with 8.5-point Houston favorite, so there’s just an outside chance of a bet on them this time. The total points line is slightly lowered, accounting for the defense and pace modifications, so it’s holding enough of a value to take a swing at the overs.
My Pick: Pass (Houston -7 -105)
Total: Over 223 points -110
