The Golden State Warriors and the Portland Trail Blazers will match up in what is a repeat of the last year’s conference semifinals. The Warriors, bolstered by the addition of a former MVP Kevin Durant are in a familiar position, starting the quest for the 16 wins from the top seed for the third year in a row. The Blazers had to work till the final week to get in, after placing 4th or 5th the previous three seasons. Last year’s playoff series was the first time two teams met in the postseason, and the Warriors won 4-1, playing the first three games without Stephen Curry. Combined with the regular season games since 2013, the Warriors have been very dominant, going 19-4 over the Blazers. They swept this season 4-0, including a victory of 45 points, the largest ever margin of victory.
NBA Playoffs: Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors
LINE: Golden State -13.5 (-116); moneyline -1250
Total: 222.5 points (-105 over, -103 under)
Portland take the role of underdog once again
Two seasons ago, when the Portland Trail Blazers (41-41) lost their best player, LaMarcus Aldridge, to the Spurs, it was widely seen as an inevitable demise for the franchise and everybody was sending them to the lottery. The Blazers responded by taking the fifth seed in the packed West. So when they fell 0-2 to the Clippers in the first round, they were signed off again, but they took the next 4 games and advanced.
This season, Rip City was an afterthought at the All Star break and fans were calling for the tanking to begin. Yet, the Portland Trail Blazers responded once again, going 17-6 in the final two months of the season to grab the final playoff spot and the right to take another swing at the best team around. It’s quite possible that they won’t be able to take the mighty Warriors down, just like last year, but it’s certain that they are going to embrace the underdog role and try to raise some eyebrows before they are done.
On the wings of the last year’s unexpected success, the Portland Trail Blazers opted to sign their own free agents and stood pat at the beginning of the season. But while guard C.J. McCollum continued his rise to the stardom, others failed to match the contribution from the previous season and Portland fell as much as 11 games below the .500 and far out of the playoff picture. The Blazers office realized that they need to react and pulled out a gem with acquiring rumbling center Jusuf Nurkic from the depths of Denver bench. His presence instantly ignited an emotional charge into his lethargic new teammates.
It also helped that their star point guard Damien Lillard was rejuvenated with the week off during the All-Star and averaged over 30 points, 5 assists and 4 rebounds since, while shooting close to 50 percent from the field. Unfortunately for Nurkic and the Blazers, he fractured his right leg on March 28th and has missed the last seven games. He is set to be evaluated on Friday, but it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to return in time for this game and could miss the entire series.
Portland Trail Blazers won 4 of their last seven games without Nurkic and not having a sturdy center against the fluid Warriors team may not seem as a big thing, but keep in mind that a big part of the Blazers offense is initiated by a high post player and that Nurkic took that role extremely well. Vonleh has shown some progress this season, but doesn’t have the skill to do it, so all the responsibility will fall on the backs of the two already overloaded guards, Lillard and McCollum, who will need to find more shots on their own. Portland don’t match well with the Warriors due to their forwards play. They lack size and those who don’t are not very comfortable playing outside or are a tad slow. This creates problems on the defensive end that Stotts can’t hide.
The Portland Trail Blazers are a very poor team defensively. Only 5 teams allow more than their 108.5 points per game and the adjusted defensive rating rank isn’t much better as the Blazers play at league average pace. They do most of their winning by scoring a lot of points. Of the 108.0 point per contest, Lillard and McCollum score 50 between them, They take close to 44 percent of the total Blazers shots, so there’s no way that they could surprise the Warriors. Aminu, Harkless, Crabbe, Tuner, Vonleh and Leonard are the frontcourt bunch that might do some damage on a given night, but are all very inconsistent. The Blazers shoot a lot of three pointers and shoot them very well, but are rather average in all other offensive parameters.
Place: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California
Date/Time: Sunday April 16th, 2017. 3:30 PM ET
TV Coverage:
Golden State is the team to beat
It’s almost impossible to call a 67 win a tumultuous season, but the Golden State Warriors (67-15) haven’t had as smooth ride as the last time. There were some periods of less impressive play, there were injuries and some adjustment due to new additions. However, the Warriors responded to all the challenges and may have just profit from the little testing they went through this season. They had it all too easy last year when they couldn’t respond to a little pressure in the NBA Finals, becoming a first team to lose on the biggest stage after leading 3-1.
The shock didn’t last too long though. Front office got to work immediately and got the most coveted free agent, Kevin Durant, to move to the Bay Area. Despite the brilliant shooting of Klay Thompson and the charisma of Steph Curry, despite Green’s leadership and defense, Durant immediately showed why he is one of the best players in the league, if not the best. He went to the best team ever, and he became their best player. His consistent, effortless play was the reason the Warriors suddenly had issues when he went down with a knee injury, but Curry and Thompson didn’t take too long to put the things in the right place.
Golden State won 14 games in a row when it mattered the most, fighting off the challenging Spurs and Rockets before Durant recovered. They did it without Draymond Green’s offensive contribution too. Green regressed after a unbelievable season, shooting just 41.8 percent from the field and 30.8 percent on (open) threes. He was still very versatile and averaged an incredible 7.0 assists per game (more than Curry did) and was the main reason that the Warriors defense remained among the top three in the league despite losing Bogut in the offseason. Golden State allows 104.4 points, a number close to the mean, but when pace is accounted, it turns out that they play second best defense in the league.
Coupled with undoubtedly best offense, it’s no surprise that they’ve put another historic season in terms of the average winning margin. Still, absence of a rim protecting center could be felt in he postseason, as Pachulia and McGee lack the defensive smarts, putting too much pressure on Green and Durant. Portland’s Nurkic would have required a big body to guard him, but since he’s injured, the Warriors won’t have to worry about that in the first round.
Stephen Curry leads the team in scoring with 25.4 points. He is looking for his own shot more than last season and is the team’s most frequent shooter. He attempts 10 three pointers per game and hits them at a 41 percent clip. The other Splash brother posted similar numbers. Thompson puts up almost as much field goal attempts and threes as Curry and averages slightly fewer points (22.5) on almost the same percentage. Than there’s Durant, who also tops 25 points per game. No other Warriors scores in double digits, but Green and Iguodala are still playing at a very high level.
Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors Game 1 Game Trends & Prediction
The Portland Trail Blazers had an average season in main betting statistics. They went 40-42 against the spread and 44-37-1 against the over/under. However, they have done the most positive in the last month of the season, going 13-3 since March 15. The Portland Trail Blazers are the worst road team in the playoffs, winning just 16 games away from home and some of it translated the their away ATS record of 18-23. Portland played just five early tip-off games this season, going 3-2 both ATS and O/U.
Golden State tops the league in many offensive and defensive stat categories, but when it comes to ATS record, nothing stands out. They went 40-39-3 against the spread overall and 21-18-2 at home. Of course, the public loves them and the books always inflate their lines, so it’s not a bad record at all. The public also overreacts on their offense and discount the defensive ability this team has, so the Warriors played significantly more unders this season. Their O/U record is 32-50 overall, mostly due to the period from February 25th until the March 26th, when they’ve gone an incredible 1-16 against the projected total points line. The Warriors should be more used to playing early as they were frequently featured in the Sunday noon games, going 5-4 against the spread and 3-6 against the O/U on such games.
The Warriors are a massive favorite to start the playoffs, giving up 13.5 points before the ball tips off. The early public money is still going their way as the title challengers are supposed to glide through all the series. The people are probably gambling that McCollum isn’t ready with the strained right hand and that Nurkic won’t be available. My expectancy is that the first one plays and the second sits, and thus have a -14 spread set for the Warriors. The total points line moved slightly towards more points, and I believe it will continue in that direction once McCollum’s status is confirmed.
My Pick: Golden State Warriors -13.5 (-116)
Total: Over 222.5 points (-105)
