The San Antonio Spurs are having their way with the Memphis Grizzlies, so perhaps the change of scenery will shake the underdog back into competitiveness. The Southwest Division rivals will continue their series in Grindhouse on Thursday, where the Grizzlies won both regular season games this year. The Spurs have been ruthless in previous years, sweeping their opposition whenever they got the chance, so they’ll be looking to get not one, but two games on road.
LINE: San Antonio -3.5 (-103); moneyline -158
Total: 185.5 (-106o, -106u)
Leonard goes 19-of-19 from the free throw line to lead the Spurs to 2-0
The San Antonio Spurs won the first two games of the series by a combined 43 points, but did have two bad quarters. This time, they wouldn’t let Memphis jump them from the tip off, hitting from deep as the game started and building as big as 26-point lead in the first half. They relaxed and let the Grizzlies back into the game, but quickly shook the challenge off with a pair of threes to claim the double digit lead back.
As many times before, Kawhi Leonard led them in the win. He finished with 37 points, shooting 9-of-14 on field goals and a perfect 19-of-19 from the free throw line, as the Memphis Grizzlies used everything to slow him down, without much success.
The Spurs failed to gain much opening from the ball movement, so they have to rely on their prolific forward to create. The San Antonio Spurs only had 14 assists for the game, the same count as their turnovers.
The Spurs shot 28-of-61 from the field, attempting 21 less field goal than their opponents, as they’ve spent most of the day shooting free throws. They got most of the support from the three point shooting of Parker, Green and Pau Gasol, who each scored in double digits. Once again, they’ve gone away from Dedmon at the five quickly, playing more with a smaller, more mobile lineup that could extend to defend the high setting Gasol.
They also paired Aldridge with Pau to a great success, building most of their lead with this combination of bigs. Neither of them did much damage on the inside, as the Spurs were fouled as they tried to get anything at the rim, finishing with just 20 points in the paint.
The defense did the job again. Outside the Conley, Randolph and Gasol, the Spurs are not letting anyone score points. And when Conley takes a breather, they jump on Gasol with traps, pressure and force him to exert much energy just by moving the ball. It’s a calculated risk as they know that the Memphis Grizzlies don’t have good shooters. Their foes leave Texas down 0-2, dejected and demoralized, so it’s a great job they’ve done.
Place: FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee
Date/Time: Thursday April 20th, 2017. 9:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: NBATV
Grizzlies offensive struggles are real
Down 0-2 and playing only one good quarter in each of the first two games, the Grizzlies need to wake up quickly, or they’ll be on the summer vacation before the next week.
Game 2 was not close – it was another swing and a miss by Memphis team. The silver lining is that they got as close as four points early in the fourth quarter, but that would be looking at the game through double set of pink glasses. The Grizzlies scored 82 points in each of the first two games played in San Antonio, making the same number of field goals (31), threes (7) and free throws (13). They are struggling to score and have gone away from what they do best, seeking miracles by launching many deep shots. After the game in which his team trailed by 26 points in the first half, Fizdale blamed referees for the loss, showing lack of perception of what is happening and challenging his frustration in wrong direction.
The truth is, Memphis hasn’t found a rotation that fits well against the Spurs. They managed to shave most of the deficit going big, with Green, Randolph and Gasol all playing together, but their center was already so gassed towards the end of the game that they couldn’t complete the comeback. He is playing 40 minutes a game and never gets a play off as the Grizzlies run their offense through him and rely on him to anchor the defense.
The defense was the usual scrappy stuff, a solid effort to slow down the Spurs. They used a lot of slapping, grabbing and pushing to limit the easy points, putting Leonard on the line 19 times, and they had no answer for the Spurs while their rivals hit threes.
Zach Randolph decided to show up for this game, scoring 18 points and pulling down 10 rebounds in his typical game, and Conley was good again with 24 points and 8 assists, but that was about everything that went positive for the seventh seed. Carter’s 12 points are a fool’s gold, as he was -21 in the plus/minus and the supporting cast didn’t do anything useful for the Grizz.
They need to find anyone to provide more points for them and have a good game from each of the main three guys, not just two, to have a chance to beat the Spurs.
San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies Game 3 Trends & Prediction
Two covers have set the Spurs ATS record to 43-39-2, and they are even better away from home, where they had 22-16-2. They are an average team when it comes to the total points line. They play at a slow pace, and everyone knows it, so the books haven’t had much problems catching up with them. The San Antonio Spurs are 44-38 against the over/under this season.
Memphis failed to cover in the either game in San Antonio. More money was on them, so the bookmakers are happy. The Grizzlies have covered in all regular season games against the San Antonio Spurs, but the absence of Tony Allen has hurt them more than the punters were able to account for. And despite the reputation of a strong home team, the Grizzlies haven’t fared all that well at home against the spread, finishing the regular season with a 21-20 record. Overall, the Grizzlies are 41-43 for the season. Last game was a clean under, making the O/U record of 39-42 overall. At home, Memphis are even more reliable to stay under the projected line, as they went 15-24 at the FedExForum.
Memphis has played poorly on the offense, but has improved defensively. With more contact allowed at their home, they should be fine in this aspect. Shooting should be better in front of their fans, so the Grizzlies are going to keep it closer in theory. The books still see them as an unlikely team to win the game, giving them a bonus of 3.5 points. They were double digit underdogs both times in San Antonio, so the books are happy with their assessment. I took the Grizzlies +11 last game, and due to the poor play, I’m not going to back them again with such a low spread. Insted, I will take the Spurs on the road. The points are down to 185.5 this time, as the books keep lowering the number, which is why I think that this one should go in the overs department.
My Pick: San Antonio Spurs -3.5 (-106)
Total: Over 183.5 points (-105)
