The Cleveland Cavaliers will once again have the Toronto Raptors stand in their way of reaching the ultimate fight with the Warriors, but this time they’ll see them in the Eastern Conference Semifinal series that starts Monday in Ohio. They’ve had much success against the Raptors, winning 4-2 last year and going 3-1 in the regular season. Toronto will look to prove their growth by keeping close with the champions and hope that the new additions will help them close the gap.
Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers Game 1
LINE: Cleveland -6.5 (-104); moneyline -278
Total: 208.5 (-104o, -103u)
The Raptors investment in defense needs to pay dividends now
After defeating the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday night, the Toronto Raptors advanced to the second round of the NBA Playoffs for the second consecutive season, but will face a tall task of eliminating the reigning champions to progress further. Also, the Cavaliers are no Bucks when it comes to putting the ball through the hoop. Toronto will need to buckle down on defense to stop the Cavaliers’ high-octane offense. The Cavs averaged 112.8 points in Indiana series, up on the 110.3 ppg from the regular season, which was a fourth best mark in the league.
Of course, it’s the Cavaliers who the Raptors front office people had when they added Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker, two quality defensive options who can theoretically match up better to the likes of Kevin Love and LeBron James, but it will require resetting their starting lineup with Valanciunas back in it. The big Lithuanian has struggled ever since Ibaka was acquired, to the point that Casey had to go small with Powell inserting in the lineup. The Cavaliers are different monster though and the decision on how to match up with them will play a significant factor in whether the Raptors can really compete with them.
Offensively, Toronto need to get an edge by their star backcourt play as Lowry and DeRozan have had a better postseason this time. Unfortunately, it’s not the Lowry of the mid-season. He is suffering from injuries and was not in great form in April. He only played handful of games with the new players and any lack of chemistry is likely to be magnified in this series. On the other hand, DeRozan averaged 23.5 points on 44 percent shooting to lead the team in the postseason, but also had two bad games in the playoffs – this can’t happen again as the Raptors don’t have enough firepower to afford his off nights.
Lowry, Ibaka and Powell scored in double digit in the playoffs, while the bench guys barely got their names onto the scoring sheet. It was a low scoring series against the Bucks as both teams struggled with efficiency in most of the games. The Cavs series will not be anything like it.
Place: Quicken Loan Arena, Cleveland, Ohio
Date/Time: Monday May 1st, 2017. 7:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: TNT
King James shows that he’s not past his prime
You can try to stop LeBron if you want, but that’s a fool’s errand. Many teams have learned this first hand and the newest try ended by James total domination of the series. He played offense, defense, leader role, probably even coached. The Pacers tried to stay home on Cleveland’s three-point shooters and forced James to beat them. While it’s a different strategy, it didn’t work.
He scored 32.8 points, had 9.8 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game, along with nice defensive contribution of 3 steals and 2 blocks. The Raptors will show Tucker and Carroll on him, much like on Antetokounmpo, but he is much stronger and a better outside shooter than the Greek Freak, and the Raptors won’t have the luxury of cheating on the point guard position, as Kyrie Irving was in an aggressive mode all postseason.
On the defensive side, all the Cleveland Cavaliers need to do is stop one guy, DeRozan. Lowry’s health limitations have already diminished his play, so the Raptors will rely heavily on their top scorer. The Cavs struggled to limit the top star of their previous opponent, Paul George, but DeRozan brings an easier challenge as they can put more different looks onto him and because he is far more predictable with no three point shot in his arsenal. Look for the Cavs to jump on the Raptors with no mercy and evoke the memories of the last year’s complete dominance.
Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers Game 1 Trends & Prediction
The Toronto Raptors opened yet another playoff series slowly, and it translated to three ATS losses, but ultimately figured it out to cover in the last three. Two of those covers happened on the road as they enjoyed a small handicap to play against, and the other was the game 5 blowout. Also, under points happened 4 times due to the Bucks new style of play and offensive struggles for both teams during the series. The Raptors scored more than 92 points only twice in the series, and won. For the season, Toronto was 48-39-1 ATS, playing much better on the road where they went 26-18. However, they are just 10-14 ATS as an underdog. They are also 46-42 against the over/under overall and 18-26 on the road as they had more issues scoring.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have split the series the same way as the Raptors did, covering in the away games against the smaller spreads. As a reigning NBA champion packed with stars, Cleveland never had much chance to do good in the regular season, facing large handicaps. They went 38-45-3 ATS overall and 19-21-3 at home. The accentuated three point shooting and a declining defense led to large number of overs on the Cavs games. Against the projected total points line, they went 3-1 in the first round, 25-17 in Cleveland and 50-35-1 overall. The lowest line they played against the entire season was 201, against the Raptors in the final game of the regular season, when they rested players.
The Cavaliers are favored by only 6.5 points in Game 1, a surprisingly low figure considering that they had been favored by this much in Toronto last year. This suggests that the difference between teams has been significantly reduced, which might be true trying to compare two seasons, but not quite judging at the current situations. The Cleveland Cavaliers are healthy, play at another level in the playoffs and have the difference maker in James. The Raptors are still searching for an identity with the lineup changes and can’t score consistently. Lowry, whether it’s the bad back or lack of practice, isn’t going to impose his will on the series. I’m having Cleveland here as the fair number is -8.5 for the Game 1, and invite you to join me. I’m also going with the overs. Toronto’s inability to shoot the ball with confidence gives me chills, but the line is simply set too low and should be at 213. Go win the home jolly and the plus points in this one.
My Pick: Cleveland -6.5 (-104)
Total: Over 208.5 points (-104)
