The Golden State Warriors look to put a strong grip on the West semifinal series by taking a 2-0 on the Utah Jazz, but one defeat will certainly not bother the resilient Jazz players from competing at the highest level. Game 2 is on Thursday in the Oracle Arena, before the teams pack the bags for Salt Lake City.
Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors
LINE: Golden State -12.5 (-105); moneyline -1300
Total: 204.5 (-106o, -106u)
Game 1 loss brings memories back
The Utah Jazz stayed true to themselves in the Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals. They lost 94-106, but weren’t atrocious in words of their coach Snyder. They knew that beating Golden State will be a tall task, but have a plan on how to give themselves the best chance to do it, and have shown the willingness to stick with it. The plan included changing up the starting five to try to limit the advantage the Warriors have at the two forwards positions.
Snyder probably feared that inserting Hood would be too much of a downsize (at least in terms of bulk), so he opted to use Joe Johnson as a primary defender on Durant, keeping Hayward off the difficult defensive task and out of the foul trouble by placing him on Green. The move did trouble the Warriors as they probably were prepared for such an adjustment early on in the series, but doesn’t seem like it’s one of a series changing variety.
Both teams started kind of slow. While the move produced good results on the defensive end, where Johnson and Hayward alternated to hold one of the most dangerous scorer in the NBA check, limiting Durant to just 17 points on 7-of-17 shooting, having Johnson with the starters disrupted the Jazz offensive flow early on. The methodical Jazz knew that they can’t keep up with the Warriors pace, but a little more hustle and urgency would have helped their cause. They struggled to find solution to the switching defense of the Warriors and had to settle for shots deep into the shot clock.
Of course, part of it is by design, and the Jazz outside players probably won’t be able to do much better breaking down a very mobile Warriors defense, one that ranked second after the regular season, but they need to get more out of Johnson, Hayward and Hill. The Jazz had success when they were able to get to the hoop. Utah converted on 19 of its 26 attempts inside five feet. But Johnson shot 4-of-10, Hayward was just 4-of-15 and Hill 3-of-9.
Additionally, the Jazz were able to get to the free throw line just 12 times all game, and six of the foul shots were mustered by Gobert. The long Frenchman produced team-high 13 points and 8 rebounds, playing good anchoring defense that allowed the rest of the lineup to put extra pressure on the Warriors outside shooters. In fact, the Jazz did a solid job defensively, limiting Warriors to just 7-of-29 shooting on the three point tries. Most importantly, the game was played at their pace despite Warriors’ urge to push it up, but when playing with fewer possessions, the simply need to execute better to have a chance of pulling an upset.
Place: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California
Date/Time: Thursday May 4th, 2017. 10:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN, TSN
Well rested Cavaliers enjoy the first game and the lead
The Golden State Warriors controlled the flow of the opener to take a 1-0 lead against the Utah Jazz, winning Monday’s game 106-94. But it was far from a smooth basketball game for the Western Conference top seed. Golden State took a 9-0 lead, then took control in second quarter before pulling away in the fourth, leading by as much as 21 before the Jazz closed it down for the final margin. But the Warriors weren’t comfortable playing in half court against the Jazz.
Utah shot poorly and committed plenty of turnovers, so GS could go in transition, scoring 29 points on the fast breaks. The 106 points they totaled were the most in the last 5 games with the same opponent, so don’t think of a 24 percent shooting on threes as a fluke. The Warriors will need to play at their best to avoid trouble in this series.
And they were at their best on the defensive end. Hayward was constantly tracked by the Warriors, who switched defenders to keep him covered all over the court. Green led the charge as the Warriors stunted the Jazz offense. By the time Utah passed 80 points, the game had less than five minutes remaining and Curry had been pulled for the rest of the game. On the other side, the Warriors managed to pull Gobert out of the paint by playing David West at the center and putting him into pick and roll situations, limiting his impact as much as they could. So they have a good plan on Hayward and Gobert, and both of those worked fairly well. The game wasn’t close, but it wasn’t a blowout either.
The Warriors also shot 49 percent from the field and turned the ball over a franchise playoff low seven times. All five Warriors starters scored in double figures, led by Stephen Curry with 22 points and five different players had at least 5 assists in the game. Curry turned his ankle in the second half, but claims it’s nothing serious
Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors Game 2 Trends & Prediction
The Utah Jazz managed to do a backdoor cover, using the big spread to their backers’ advantage. This was the third time this season the Jazz won against the spread against the same opponent, failing to cover just once. It is also the fourth time in the last five games that the Jazz got the win, improving their perfect postseason ATS away record to 5-0. Overall, Utah Jazz is 42-44-4 ATS, and 22-23-1 as a visiting team. Game 1 was an under, their third in four games, but the Jazz aren’t a team where playing either side brings any edge. They are 45-45 against the over/under this season and 24-22 as a visiting team.
Golden State won all five postseason games straight up, but are just 1-2 at home against the spread, as the bookmakers look to fade them as much as they can. This season, the Warriors went 43-41-3 ATS overall, and are just 22-20-2 at home despite losing just 5 games in the Oracle Arena. Under is the money bet all season, as Warriors defense remains underappreciated. Against the over/under, the Dubs went 20-24 at home and 35-52 overall.
The bookmakers are happy with the spread as long as the Warriors don’t cover it, being such a public betting team. They are even luring the casual bettors into another go, lowering the spread by half a point compared to the first game, but this adjustment is based on the fact that this is the second game of the series, one that generates the lowest home court advantage for the teams up 1-0. The total point line is slightly lowered as well, to account for a very slow pace of the game more than anything. I have the Warriors at -11.5 for this encounter, so I’ll be looking to take the Jazz if the opportunity arises. I’m right on with the total point prediction with 205 points, so this is a clear no bet.
My Pick: Utah +13 (-108)
Total: Pass
