NBA Preview: Warriors vs Thunder, Sixers vs Magic, Wizards vs Celtics
Golden State Warriors (55-14) at Oklahoma City Thunder (40-29), 8 p.m. EST
Line: Warriors -1. Total 222.5.
I was dead wrong the last time these two teams met at Oklahoma City as I picked the Thunder to not only cover the 8-point spread, but to win the game outright on February 11. Despite a fast start by OKC, jumping out to a 17-10 lead, the Warriors gathered themselves quickly and went on a 63-33 run to close out the half. The Thunder never got closer than 12 points the rest of the game.
Golden State has won six straight games against the Thunder going back to the Western Conference Finals last season. However, I expect that streak to end Monday night and expect this game to be a lot different than their last meeting.
Why will it be different? Let us start with the personnel, for starters.
Golden State will not have Kevin Durant. They are just 5-4 straight up without him and it may as well be 5-5 as he was injured in the first 2 minutes of the Wizards’ game back on February 28, so they basically played that entire game without him.
The Thunder have added Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott to the team in their trade with the Chicago Bulls and have Enes Kanter back from his fractured forearm injury. Kanter did not play on February 11. The Thunder have won and covered their last five games.
Sure, it looks like the Warriors have finally figured out how to win without Durant, winning three straight, but all three games were at home. Two of those opponents were the Sixers and Magic, two of the worst five teams in the league, and Milwaukee was on the back-end of a back-to-back when they faced the Warriors.
The Thunder have all the motivation here and I simply do not see them losing this game.
My record (2-0, +$200).
My pick:
Oklahoma City Pick, laying $104 to win $100 (1 unit, normal play).
NBA Preview: Warriors vs Thunder, Sixers vs Magic, Wizards vs Celtics
Philadelphia 76ers (26-43) at Orlando Magic (25-45), 7 p.m. EST
Line: Magic -5. Total 214.5.
The Sixers are first in the league in ATS (Against The Spread) wins, with a record of 44-24-1. The Magic are dead last in the league with an ATS record of 28-40-2. Philadelphia has covered the spread six consecutive games and had a big straight-up win on Sunday vs. the Boston Celtics at home.
Orlando ended a 3-game western swing with a 109-103 win at Phoenix. The Magic actually have a better road record than home record this season, which is quite the anomaly as the NBA has always been a league where the home teams dominate.
The road team has won all three games this season between these two teams. Orlando is just 3-5 ATS in “check-mark” games, where a rested team is playing a team on the back-end of a back-to-back. Philly is 8-7 ATS in back-enders, but 6-1 ATS during the last seven games in this situational spot.
So why is Orlando favored by 5 points in this game? Because Vegas believes strongly that Orlando will win this game by at least that many points.
This is a let-down game for the Sixers after a big win yesterday and they are travelling down from Philly to Orlando to face a team with two day’s rest. The Sixers also have several players injured, including two more additions to their injury list after Sunday’s game as Jahlil Okafur and Robert Covington are questionable for this game.
My pick:
Orlando Magic -5, laying $110 to win $100 (1 unit, normal play).
NBA Preview: Warriors vs Thunder, Sixers vs Magic, Wizards vs Celtics
Washington Wizards (42-27) at Boston Celtics (44-26), 7:30 p.m. EST
Line: Celtics -3.5. Total 216.5.
Isaiah Thomas is probable to return to this game tonight for the Celtics. The Celtics shot just 40% from the field their last two games without Thomas in the lineup.
The Wizards had their 9-game over streak snapped last time out against Charlotte as they shot just 36.7% from the field in 98-93 loss. John Wall, Otto Porter and Brandon Jennings all shot poorly from the field, combining to go 10-for-33 from the field which is just 30.3%.
This is a huge “chart-play” for the Wizards to go under the total. A “chart-play” for me is a situational spot where you wait for a streak of four or more overs, unders, covers or not-covers to end, and then you immediately reverse field and pick the other way. The Wizards just had a 9-game over streak end with an under against Charlotte on Saturday, so now you automatically take the under in their next game. The higher the streak, the stronger the play.
However, there are some situational factors that will keep me from making this a full-unit play. The Celtics are 11-2-1 to the under on the closing line their last 14 games, but they seem to be on the brink of having an over streak starting. Isaiah Thomas coming back tonight also makes me nervous. The Celtics are only ranked #14 in pace and the Wizards, despite all their recent overs, are ranked #11 in pace, so I have that in my favor for a game with a total listed at 216.5.
I will make a play on the under, but only as an “action play” for half a unit.
My pick:
Washington / Boston under 216.5, laying $55 to win $50 (1/2 unit, action play).
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