NBA Previews for Tuesday, October 31.
Oklahoma City Thunder (3-3) at Milwaukee Bucks (4-2), Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. EST
Line: Thunder -1.5. Total: 212.
Oklahoma City is clearly in adjustment mode early in the campaign with their two big offseason acquisitions. Paul George and Carmelo Anthony join Russell Westbrook to create the Thunder’s version of the Big 3.
Westbrook has proven thus far that he can sacrifice his points so PG3 and Melo can get their points. He is averaging 20.8 points per game this season, which is 11 points lower than his average from a season ago. Westbrook is close to averaging a triple-double as he leads the league with an average of 12.2 assists per game and has 9.8 rebounds per game. He is averaging two assists more and one rebound less per game than last year.
Anthony is averaging 23.8 points per game, while George is averaging 19.5 points per game for OKC. There is still a lot of work to do for this group and tonight will be a good test for them.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is setting the league on fire early in the season. As a result, Antetokounmpo was the first player in NBA history to accumulate 147 points, 43 rebounds and 21 assists through the first four games of a season, according to the Elias Sports Bureau (ESPN.com). He was shooting an astounding 65.9% from the field at the time. Giannis was averaging 36.8 points, 10.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 2.3 steals and 1.0 blocks per game after four games.
His per-game numbers have slipped slightly since then. Antetokounmpo sits at 34.7 points, 10.7 boards, 5.5 assists, 2.0 steals and 0.8 blocks per game now. Giannis is a one-man wrecking crew.
Looking at this game from a handicapping perspective, the one glaring item that stands out is that the Thunder have not beaten a quality opponent. Sure, Oklahoma City handled the Knicks, Pacers and Bulls, who are all .500 teams or below. However, they are 0-3 against winning teams. OKC lost to Minnesota twice and Utah once.
Meanwhile, the Bucks have beaten three teams with winning records. Milwaukee is a middle of the pack team in just about every major category. However, the Thunder rank #4 in the league for points allowed per game.
I did pick Milwaukee to win this game and for the game to stay under the Vegas total. However, I am not betting this game. I do have my money on this play:
Phoenix / Brooklyn over 231, laying $110 to win $100 – The two fastest paced teams in the league meet tonight with Phoenix at #1 and Brooklyn at #2. However, unlike the Nets, who can score the points to go with that pace, ranking #3 in points scored per game in the league, the Suns have trouble scoring. Phoenix only ranks #21 in points per game. Clearly the Suns are not efficient on the offensive end as their offensive rating dictates as they rank #28 in the league, while Brooklyn ranks #7 in offensive rating.
These two squads are also dead last in points allowed per game on defense as Phoenix ranks #29 and Brooklyn ranks #30. So do not let the Suns inefficiency on offense scare you. They are playing a Brooklyn team who has a Swiss cheese defense. I expect 240-plus points to be scored in this game. Take the over.
Good luck.
Record: 9-8 on the season, +$20.
Sides: 7-5
Totals: 2-1
2H: 0-2
#1 Sides: 7-7
#1 Totals: 10-4
Sides: (1) Phoe, (2) Det, (3) Sac, (4) Milw.
Totals: (1) Phoe ov, (2) Mil un, (3) Sac un, (4) Det un.
Note: Still 9-6 on the season with regular game plays as the second half (2H) plays are making me look mediocre right now.
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