Back during Team USA camp in Las Vegas in July, I ran into a guy who looked a lot like Andre Drummond … if Drummond had been run through 24 consecutive dryer cycles — dude was relatively skinny.
Turns out it actually was Drummond, who said he was down 20 pounds due to a “partial vegan” diet. This did not sit well with the vegans on Twitter.
My advice to the hardcore vegans to chill out and have a cheeseburger did not sit well, either.
Whatever … Twitter is supposed to be fun, too.
Drummond is now in camp with the Detroit Pistons, who say he is down 18 pounds from where he ended last season after leading the NBA in rebounding at 16.0 per game. He is the prohibitive favorite (-220) to win the rebounding crown again, and his MVP odds are 250-1.
The second choice is DeAndre Jordan (insert your own emoji), who is now with the Dallas Mavericks and will have a heavy usage rate. Jordan averaged slightly more rebounds per 48 minutes (23.2) than Drummond (22.8), which accounts for his 5/2 odds.
Aside from those two, nobody has odds lower than 15-1.
So yes, wagering opportunities with value payoffs are abundant. Which means it is time to look at the field as we produce the latest in a series of columns on the NBA prop bets that have gone up in the past couple of days since training camps opened.
Let’s look at the field:
Andre Drummond, Pistons: -200. Last season, Drummond was the first player since Dennis Rodman in 1996-97 to average at least 16 rebounds. He has never averaged fewer than 13.2 rebounds over the past five seasons, and he logged a career-high 33.7 minutes last season. He is a worthy prohibitive favorite. Bonus bet not yet listed: Over/under on 3-pointers is 1.5. He was 0-for-11 last season and is 5-for-30 in his six-year career.
DeAndre Jordan, Mavericks: +250. Led the NBA in rebounding in 2013-’14 and in ’14-’15, and is wearing a new uniform for the first time in 11 seasons. His conditioning will determine whether he plays the 34-35 minutes per game he logged four and five years ago. So will the development of backup Maxi Kleber. Bonus bet not yet listed: Over/under on 3-pointers attempted is 1. He is 1-for-11 in his 10-year career.
Anthony Davis, Pelicans: 15-1. He will be given heavy minutes but has never grabbed more than 11.8 rebounds in his six NBA seasons. He averaged 14.8 boards in the second-round playoff loss to New Orleans, but his average of nearly 41 minutes per game in that series was an impacting factor. When 3-pointer percentage over/under props go up, it’ll be interesting to see where the odds are set. Davis shot 53 percent from the arc last season, taking about two per game and making a total of 55.
Dwight Howard, Wizards: 15-1. The five-time rebounding champ has yet another new team … and the Wizards are East contenders. The Hornets were not last season when he played under 31 minutes per game yet still finished fourth in the NBA in rebounding. Probably a better 15-1 candidate than Davis.
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Kevin Love, Cavs: 15-1. Back when he was a young alpha dog, he averaged 15.2 rebounds in 2010-11 and 14.0 in 2012-13. Now going into his 11th season, Love will be an alpha dog in Cleveland, but it seems like these odds are too low. Think about it: Love averaging more rebounds than Drummond? Nah.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Timberwolves: 20-1. Finished 0.2 rebounds per game behind Howard last season, good for fifth in the NBA. Has his supermax extension, and the question after guys get paid is always the same: Will he play as hard now as he did when he wanted to earn that supermax?
Rudy Gobert, Jazz: 20-1: Same thought as Love, French version: Gobert averaging more rebounds than Drummond? Nah.
Hassan Whiteside, Heat: 25-1: Led the league in rebounding two seasons ago. Now, Pat Riley can’t trade him for a bag of basketballs. Worth a flyer if he gets traded to a team that has no other options at center. Injuries happen.
Joel Embiid: 25-1. Rebounds a ton, but spends a lot of time on the offensive end out at the arc, which takes away from offensive rebounding opportunities. Save your money.
Clint Capela: 30-1. Averaged 18.9 rebounds per 48 minutes and played only 27.5 minutes per game. Also got paid over the summer. Probably worth a flyer given the price and the potential for more minutes.
Enes Kanter: 55-1. The Knicks are going to miss a lot of shots while tanking, and somebody has to rebound a bunch of those missed shots. Kyle O’Quinn and Jeff Hornacek aren’t around anymore, so his playing time could spike up. His 20.5 rebounds per 48 minutes was fourth behind Drummond, Jordan and Whiteside. Flyer-worthy.
Nikola Jokic, Nuggets: 55-1. Steady big production increases over his first three seasons. Now maxed. Excited to see where the triple-double over/under line is set.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks; John Collins, Hawks; LeBron James, Lakers; Russell Westbrook, Thunder: A guy I know put $5 on each of them at those odds. His dog is sitting next to him as he types.
