The time has finally come to drop our NCAA Championship game preview, where we break down the Villanova Wildcats and North Carolina Tar Heels before picking our choice for who will be named Champion on Monday night.
Here are the keys to the game:
UNC’s Threes and Trees
What’s the best cure for shooting paltry percentages from beyond the three-point arc? Well, collecting offensive rebounds by the dozen, obviously. When UNC gets stubborn on the perimeter and starts jacking up threes, they’re fortunate to have trees like Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks underneath to clean things up for them.
Villanova has to find a way to keep the Tar Heels off the glass. Oklahoma came down with seven offensive rebounds in the first four minutes on Saturday afternoon, a number that Jay Wright won’t be able to live with if it’s against UNC. If Villanova finds a way to do that, long rebounds could allow them to get into transition and not have to deal with UNC’s bigs when they’re already in position near the rim.
Kris Jenkins vs. Who?
Since the middle of February, Jenkins has made an argument to be considered Villanova’s best scoring option, especially since he’s found his stroke from downtown. So, who will Roy Williams throw at him on Monday evening? Not only that, who will Wright match him up with on the defensive end?
Jenkins is not the same caliber of athlete as Justin Jackson or Brice Johnson, but he’s likely to find himself in a situation where he needs to guard one or the other–and likely the same on the other end. If he can initiate some foul trouble for his opponent while staying out of it himself, that would go a long way for Villanova’s title chances.
Regression to the Mean?
If Villanova has a repeat shooting performance–they shot 71.4-percent from the field against Oklahoma on Saturday–then it’s safe to say that they’ll be cutting down the nets on Monday night. But if some sort of regression to the mean is in order, the Wildcats are in trouble.
North Carolina finds ways to make opponents uncomfortable in a different fashion seemingly every game. Sometimes it’s with rim protection from the bigs and others it is with perimeter pressure from Joel Berry or Theo Pinson. Either way, UNC needs to set the tone from the get-go if they want to force Villanova into uncomfortable offensive situations and spots.
Final Prediction: I’ve been underestimating Villanova for what feels like forever and their ability to pressure opposing guards could be the difference maker. Still, it’s hard to imagine them having anywhere close to the same offensive potency as they did against the Sooners. Plus, I see too many mismatches underneath when trying to line up against North Carolina.
I’m rolling with Roy Williams to pick up another national title with the Tar Heels on Monday night.
