The #1 Gonzaga Bulldogs and the #7 South Carolina Gamecocks will, for the first time in their school’s histories, participate at the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament. While the Bulldogs where somewhat expected to reach the Final Four, the Gamecocks enter this contest as the biggest surprise, especially after defeating the Duke Blue Devils and the Florida Gators on their road to the Final Four. The game tip-off is scheduled for Saturday, April 1st at 6:10 PM ET.
Place: University of Phoenix Stadium, Phoenix, Arizona
Date/Time: Saturday April 1st, 2017. 6:10 PM ET
TV Coverage: CBS
FINAL FOUR: #1 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. #7 South Carolina Gamecocks
LINE: Gonzaga -6.5 (-114); moneyline -290
Total: 138 points (-106 over, -110 under)
Gonzaga at the top of their game against Xavier
The Gonzaga Bulldogs (36-1) ended the longest Final Four-less streak in history with its Elite Eight 83-59 win over Xavier. The skies have finally opened up and it rained threes for Gonzaga. The final score is a bit bloated, as the game was rather close in the first half. Xavier proved to be a worthy opponent, attacking the rim and scoring 39 points on one of the stingiest defenses in the country despite hitting only one three-pointer. The Bulldogs have already hit eight by this point and the perimeter shooting proved to be a difference in this game. Gonzaga outscored the Musketeers with 50-16 on jump shots, connecting on 12-of-24 three pointers, while the Musketeers shot only 2-of-16 from beyond the arc. Both teams were nervous from the charity line, hitting barely over 50 percent of their foul shots. Another important offensive factor played a big role in an easy win for the Bulldogs – they’ve managed to avoid live-ball turnovers and get back to set their suffocating defense. This will be a crucial thing against the South Carolina Gamecocks as well, as their next opponents scoring depends on creating easier opportunities after forced turnovers.
Nigel Williams-Goss went 4-of-7 from beyond the arc after making just a single one in the three previous games and finished with 23 points, 8 boards and 4 dimes. Johnathan Williams was efficient from the field in his 19 point, 8 boards, and 3 blocks. Guards Perkins and Matthews dropped few threes of their own, adding 11 points apiece. Double-headed inside presence of Karnowski and Collins stayed strong on the interior despite the foul trouble.
In the end, even if the shots don’t fall, Gonzaga can count on their elite defense that has held all but 4 of their past 22 opponents to 65 points or less. South Carolina is a limited team on offense and will have trouble scoring against the defense that allows 60.9 points per game on a 36.4 percent shooting.
The Gamecocks dominate the paint to knock off Florida
The South Carolina Gamecocks (26-10) have beaten all odds and have earned the spot among the top 4 teams in the nation. They did it against some formidable opponents too, defeating Marquette, Duke and most recently, the Florida Gators. They’ve opened the regional finals playing their slow, physical game and were aided by Sindarius Thornwell’s quick 15 points to build up a small lead. The game sped up near the halftime break and the Gators connected on a couple of jumpers, surging to a nice 7-point advantage. The break couldn’t come at the better time for South Carolina, as they recuperated, got reminded of their game plan and the Gators hot shooting got interrupted. Their second half was a foul fest. Other Gamecocks players got on the scoreboard and hard work on the inside started to pay off. South Carolina held a 40-22 edge in the paint and executed better in the closing moments of the game to continue their dream postseason.
Sindarius Thornwell continued his excellent Tournament, having 26 points on just 13 field goal attempts and grabbing 7 rebounds. P.J. Dozier followed the lead once again, dropping 17 points on the Gators and scoring in double digits in all postseason games. Dozier shot percentages of 40 and 22 on his 2s and 3s, respectively, against conference opponents during the regular season stand in a stark contrast to his Tournament production. He’s connecting on 67 percent of his twos and has cut down on pointless attempts from the deep.
South Carolina’s grinding, half-court defense will try to wear out the Gonzaga Bulldogs the way they did it in the previous games. It could be compared to West Virginia style that threw the Bulldogs off their game and are rare team that can hold ground against formidable Gonzaga frontcourt. They’ll look to attack the rim and get to the free throw line. They won’t mind if the game turns out to be a fight with a lot of whistles, as they can’t match Bulldogs talent.
#1 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. #7 South Carolina Gamecocks Game Trends & Prediction
The Gonzaga Bulldogs have finally looked like themselves in both aspects of the game and have managed to cover for the first time this postseason. They stand at an impressive 23-9-2 ATS record. Four of their last 5 games have failed to reach the projected total points line, and the Bulldogs have gone 2-7 against the over/under lately. Their O/U record for the season is 16-18.
The Gamecocks have covered in four games in a row and the game went to over for the third time out of those four games. Due to poor regular season, they are just 15-16-2 ATS for the season, going 14-18-1 on total points market. The last game can be a little bit deceiving with the over points, due to plenty of free throws for South Carolina. The Gamecocks had long bouts of offensive inconsistency during the regular season.
Gonzaga is a major favorite to advance to the national finals and the books have set the spread to -6.5 at the market opening. There wasn’t much line movement yet, but it’s looking like the smart money is taking the Bulldogs. Public likes the underdog. This will either be a slow, grinding game where the Bulldogs need to sustain Gamecocks pressure till the very end, or the favorite runs away with it. Either way, the underrated Gonzaga defense will close the door on South Carolina scoring and I’m going with under points. Gonzaga is coming to the Final Four with the second highest point differential in Tournament history, and are playing an overachieving team that shouldn’t be there. I bet they beat the spread.
My Pick: Gonzaga -6.5/-7
Total: Under 138 points
