The North Carolina Tar Heels have defeated the highest seed possible in every round of the NCAA Tournament. The Oregon Ducks made sure that this streak ends by eliminating the Midwest #1 seed Kansas Jayhawks and advance to their first Final Four since 1939. But this doesn’t mean that UNC will have an easier path, as the Ducks have proven that they can compete with anyone.
Place: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Date/Time: Saturday April 1st, 2017. 08:50 PM ET
TV Coverage: CBS
FINAL FOUR: #1 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. #3 Oregon Ducks
LINE: North Carolina -4.5 (-104)
Total: 150.5 points (-111 over, +106 under)
Tar Heels advance on a last-second shot
North Carolina (31-7) deserved to win and the basketball gods wouldn’t allow the improbable Kentucky come back to force an overtime. UNC led by 7 with 50 seconds to go, only to see their lead evaporate after 3 quick fire threes that left about 8 seconds on the clock. The Tar Heels responded by creating and hitting an open shot to regain the lead and win it in regulation. North Carolina did it with all round performance, but what really impressed was their perimeter defense on the dynamic Wildcats tandem of Fox and Monk, who couldn’t get clean shots for most of the game. They’ve limited an excellent offensive team to just 41.5 percent shooting and 73 points, both well below UK’s seasonal averages.
Many players stood out for the Tar Heels in the regional final, a clear sign of how deep this team is. Kennedy Meeks dominated the paint by hauling in career-best 17 rebounds (5 on the offensive end) and blocking 4 shots. Pinson used his size and played excellent defense on Fox. Jackson scored 19 points and kept Monk in check. Luke Maye hit 6-of-9 field goals for his 17 points, along with the game winning jumper. Joel Berry II fought through another ankle injury to add 11 points. It was a team effort and they need every piece of it as they haven’t played up to their standard on the offense. The Tar Heels hit just 3-of-15 from beyond the arc and missed 8 free throws. They also committed 15 turnovers and allowed 10 offensive rebounds to Kentucky. Outside Maye, their bench hasn’t had a good day.
North Carolina averages 85.1 points per game this year – a top 10 rank – and if they are able to get into transition, they could run Oregon out of the arena. They play at one of the fastest paces in college basketball despite playing with two bigs. Their defense is underrated as they allow 70.3 points per contest, good for only 124th place in NCAA, but when adjusted for pace, they actually give up less than a point per possession, suggesting a very capable defense.
Oregon shines in a win against Kansas
The Oregon Ducks (33-5) became a longshot to win the championship in the eyes of many when big man Chris Boucher tore his ACL in the Pac-12 Championship Game. This sense was compounded with every game as the team wasn’t able to replace his defensive presence, until the regional finals in Kansas City, where the Ducks showed how special they are by limiting the Jayhawks to just 60 points in front of their stunned fans. The game was never in doubt as the last lead Kansas took was at 4-3 and couldn’t come closer than to 64-55 in the second half.
Jordan Bell and Tyler Dorsey led the way for the Ducks, coming up with a big play after a big play. Dorsey is playing the best ball of his career. The sophomore guard is scoring 24 points per game in conference and regional games and he’s doing it on incredible efficiency. He’s attempted less than 13 field goals per contest, making 65.4 percent of his three-pointers. Kansas game was no different, as Dorsey buried the Jayhawks by knocking down 6-of-10 three-pointers and finished with 27 points. Bell was close to a triple-double, going 11-13-8 on points, boards and blocks. Brooks and Ennis also had nice games with 17 and 12 points respectively.
Oregon will have tough time going with four guards against UNC, unless they think it’s a good idea to run up and down the court with them. They are not a great rebounding team and the Tar Heels like to hit the glass for extra opportunities. So the Ducks will need their offense to be at the usual standard and keep the ball handlers in front of them without going to zone too much. Oregon scores 79.1 points per game this season and allow 65.6 points, so they are clearly capable of playing on both sides of the ball.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. #3 Oregon Ducks Game Trends & Prediction
The North Carolina Tar Heels are 19-15-3 ATS overall as their last game ended in a push on closing lines. Tar Heels also went 14-21-1 against the over/under, with no significant trends.
Oregon covered in the last game, not a regular occurrence recently, but have been overall successful against the spread, going 21-15-1 this season. Their last two games have ended in unders, after previously stringing four overs in a row. The Ducks have gone 17-20 against the O/U line.
North Carolina is favored to win the game, by about 4.5 points, which was somewhat expected. The only issue with it might be Joel Berry’s aggravated ankle injury. He won’t miss the game, that’s clear, but hasn’t really played up to his capabilities, but either way, I think that the Tar Heels can cover the points and reach the next round. The total points line of 150.5 gives us a small window for going for the over points, and although I expect the Ducks to slow down the pace, I will take the Over.
My Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels -4.5
Total: (Over 150.5 points -111)
