The Arizona Wildcats are in the early stages of a long-term process. They eventually want to be one of the top teams in the Pac-12 Conference, but first, they need to be able to finish in the top half of the Pac-12 South Division, moving their way closer to the Pac-12 Championship Game, something they hope to be able to achieve in 2016 if they’re being equally realistic and aggressive.
Strengths
The Wildcats’ best strength is really their coach, Rich Rodriguez. If you look at what Rodriguez did at West Virginia several years ago, it’s nothing short of spectacular. Rodriguez took West Virginia one game away from an appearance in the national championship game in the 2007 season. He took a program that was down on its luck and turned it all around, so much so that Rodriguez was involved in rumors about the Alabama job before a man named Nick Saban took it. Rodriguez failed at Michigan, but if you talk to people in the college football business, especially reporters and people close to the Michigan program, you’ll find that Rodriguez didn’t get a lot of support from the Wolverines on an administrative level. Rodriguez has proven himself as one of the most talented and creative offensive minds in college football. He’s better in situations when he doesn’t have a lot of pressure or a lot of history to live up to. West Virginia was more like that kind of place than Michigan was. Arizona’s even more of a place where history is nonexistent. There’s even less pressure in Tucson than in West Virginia. Rodriguez has a lot of time in which to create the kind of program he wants, and with that abundance of time, he should be confident and happy. When Rodriguez is in a good frame of mind, he generally does good work. He’s the best reason to pick Arizona as a darkhorse team this season.
Weaknesses
The Wildcats have so many concerns to address. First of all, Rodriguez-coached teams are generally weak on defense, and you’re not likely to see a change in that regard this season. Arizona is not particularly strong up front, and you’re going to see the other teams in the Pac-12 South, particularly UCLA and Arizona State, have some success running the ball against the Wildcats. That’s the first and most worrisome part of the puzzle for Arizona as a team. This group just might not be tough enough to hang in the ring in a heavyweight fight against tough offensive lines.
There are also worries on offense. Last year’s starting quarterback, B.J. Denker, and last year’s star running back, Ka’Deem Carey, are both pursuing professional careers now. They have to be replaced. It’s tough enough finding a new quarterback, but it’s likely going to be the case that filling in for Carey, a Heisman Trophy candidate last season, will be the bigger challenge.
Schedule
The Wildcats have to play Oregon and UCLA on the road. Those should be losses. However, every other really tough game is at home. The Wildcats probably won’t be good enough to win their division, but they should be good enough to finish no lower than third. If they can beat USC at home, they should be a third-place team at worst in the Pac-12 South.
Outlook
The Wildcats want to finish well in their division, but even if they end up in fourth and not in third, they have a lot of favorable matchups on home turf. An over-under of 6.5 is way too low for this team. Seven wins would be a disappointing season. Eight wins feels like the right total.
Pick: Over 6.5 at -160
