The Boston College Eagles have one very specific challenge ahead of them this season: They need to find a way to replace running back and Heisman Trophy finalist Andre Williams. The ability of this team to answer that question is what will determine how successful the team can really become.
Strengths
The Eagles don’t have Williams anymore, so where can strengths be found on their roster? A few trends from last season point the way forward for the Eagles, giving an indication of where they’ll be tough to deal with in 2014. First, Boston College improved relative to 2012 by leaps and bounds in a few measurements. The Eagles improved by 29 sacks, going from only six in 2012 to 35 in 2013. Two seasons ago, the Eagles committed 24 turnovers, and last year, they committed only 17 in 13 games instead of 12. Boston College was minus-five in turnover differential two years ago, but it was plus-three this past season, an improvement of plus-eight overall. This team is sound and pays attention to detail. It gets more production from its defensive line, especially the defensive ends. This is a physical team, and a team that doesn’t shoot itself in the foot nearly as often as it once did. This is a team that wins in an old-fashioned way: It doesn’t necessarily have to create gaudy statistics and do a lot of positive things. The Eagles won by avoiding a lot of negative things last season. There are different ways to get to the same endpoint in college football, and Boston College’s path was made possible by merely avoiding the bad stuff, not necessarily doing a ton of the good stuff. It’s true that Boston College won’t be as deep along the defensive front this season, but the culture inside the program could enable the Eagles to remain steady despite a lot of roster turnover.
Weaknesses
The Eagles’ offense is going to be fairly impotent this season. Williams was a Heisman Trophy finalist, having rushed for nearly 900 yards in a three-game stretch last season. Boston College was able to spring Williams for so many big runs even though its passing game was nothing to write home about. The Eagles will go into the season with Florida transfer Tyler Murphy at quarterback. Murphy’s results were not that great, but in his defense, he was playing with a Florida offensive unit that lost multiple offensive linemen due to injury. It could be that Murphy’s level of play was not that great because he didn’t have the best linemen surrounding him. However, it’s still difficult to say that Murphy’s going to be an especially good quarterback this fall. It’s a question mark at best.
Schedule
The Eagles host USC and Colorado State out of conference. If they can beat Colorado State, they’ll take it and run. They should get wins against Maine and Massachusetts. Then comes the ACC schedule. Playing North Carolina State, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse should give the team chances for wins. Louisville, Clemson, and Florida State will all rough up the Eagles, however.
Outlook
The team won’t be as good as last season, but with the bottom half of the ACC being fairly weak, this team still has a really good shot at .500. Betting the over makes sense if the number is five.
Pick: Over 5 at +138
