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NCAA Football Betting: Examining The Florida Gators Regular Season Win Total

The Florida Gators’ 2013 season was a complete disaster, but it was a complete disaster mostly because of an incredible and unusual rash of injuries that forced the team to go three or four players into its depth chart at several different positions. The Gators were not prepared to deal with all those problems, and so it’s fair for outsiders to look at this program and say that head coach Will Muschamp shouldn’t be held centrally responsible for all that went on last fall. However, the skill positions still did not have very good players, and offensive coordinator Brent Pease did not adjust to his personnel. Pease left, and new coordinator Kurt Roper was hired from Duke, where the Blue Devils came alive and won a division championship in the ACC. Florida will try to make things better on offense this season, restoring the honor and pride of a team that just couldn’t threaten opposing defenses a year ago.

Strengths

The Gators’ strength is certainly on defense. This was the side of the roster that couldn’t be blamed for what happened last season. Florida’s defense played well against Georgia and South Carolina and other teams on the SEC schedule. The offense just couldn’t do much of anything, so the defense eventually wore down and allowed just enough points to lose. Florida is fast on the outside and strong up the middle. Muschamp is, as everyone knows, a former defensive coordinator and a very good one at that, so this team should be ready for whatever challenges are thrown its way by opposing offenses. The Gators are going to be competitive, and they’re not going to be blown out very often, because their defense will be there all the time, or very close to it.

Weaknesses

The offense just can’t be trusted. The hope is that Roper, the new coordinator, will create a more aggressive, passing-oriented, and fast-paced scheme that will make players think less and produce at a higher level. Roper’s main project is also Muschamp’s main point of concern: quarterback Jeff Driskel. In 2012, when Florida made the Sugar Bowl, Driskel avoided huge mistakes, but he didn’t play very consistently, and he didn’t throw the ball that well. Last year, Driskel ran into injuries, but when he played, he made too many turnovers, and if he can at least cut down on those, the Gators have a chance to be good. Yet, Driskel will need to become a truly good passer who can make the kinds of plays that didn’t develop a year ago. Florida will need something special from Driskel late in a close game, probably two or three times, if this team is going to contend for the SEC East Division championship.

Schedule

The Gators start with cupcakes, but in week four, they visit Alabama. On a schedule that also has LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida State, the Gators look like a team that isn’t ready to challenge for a division title. Trying to win all the other games, especially in week six at Tennessee, should be the realistic goal for this season.

Outlook

The Gators probably will win the games they’re supposed to and lose the games they’re supposed to, which will probably mean a six- or seven-win season. Florida would have to pull off one upset to get to eight, so the under is the better choice right now.

Pick: Under 7.5 at +110

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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