The Illinois Fighting Illini have been struggling for several years. Even when they went to a bowl game in the 2011 season, the Illini finished the regular season without a winning record and endured a lengthy losing streak in the second half of the season that took a lot of the fun out of a postseason trip. The past two years have been very difficult seasons for coach Tim Beckman. The hope in Champaign, Ill., is that this team is ready to turn the corner next season. The Illini are not ready to turn the corner, but if they can put themselves in position to do so a year from now, the plan will basically be on schedule, given everything that’s happened up to now. These are the adjusted expectations Illinois football fans have to face this year.
Strengths
The Illini lose a quarterback who had been a core part of the program for the past four seasons. Nathan Scheelhaase did so much for Illinois’ offense, largely because he was able to scramble and make improvisational plays when the pocket broke down. This occurred fairly often because the Illini’s receivers were often unable to gain separation from opposing cornerbacks and safeties. Scheelhaase covered up a lot of the Illini’s problems on offense, so with him being gone, it’s easy to think that there will be a clear decline on offense this season.
However, the transfer process is something that can quickly change various situations in college football, and the Illini seem to have gotten a lucky break in the form of Wes Lunt, who has transferred from Oklahoma State to play in the Big Ten. The Big 12 was a place for passers, so in that sense, Lunt might be out of his comfort zone, but that might actually be counterintuitively why he’s better off in the Big Ten. Lunt didn’t handle his situation at Oklahoma State with perfect poise and balance. He struggled and ran into turnover problems. Now that he’s in a conference with less of an emphasis on passing, he could find himself and face less pressure compared to his stay at Oklahoma State.
Weaknesses
The Illini’s defense is going to be a problem, just as it has been the past few seasons. The better teams in the Big Ten were able to blow right through the Illini last season. Wisconsin scored 56 points. Nebraska scored 39. Michigan State scored 42. Indiana scored 52. Ohio State scored 60. There just wasn’t any safe place where this defense could go. If nothing really changes in 2014, the Illini are still going to be behind the curve, no matter what Lunt might do at quarterback. This is the cold, hard reality which stares Illinois fans in the face, and it might be hard to get around that reality by the time the season is halfway done. Illinois could realize that there’s no good option anywhere on this defense, something that can put a halt to the advances of an opposing offense. If the coaching staff can’t adjust to this situation, it’s going to be yet another long fall in Champaign… and it probably will be.
Schedule
The Illini have to win the home non-conference games on their schedule, against Youngstown State, Western Kentucky, and Texas State. If they can do that, they’ll give themselves a chance for a 6-6 season, because they should be able to beat Purdue at home. They will have a shot at beating Iowa at home and Northwestern on the road. That’s the plan for Illinois, where a 6-6 season would be great.
Outlook
The Illini just don’t have the defense that can get them to six wins, and they probably won’t get to five, either. Illinois could have four wins on Oct. 4, but where will that fifth win come from? It’s not likely to come though, this will be close.
Pick: Under 4.5 at +130
