The Iowa Hawkeyes weren’t great last year, but they weren’t bad. A lot of teams can fall into that in-between area, and Iowa was one of them. One thing that a lot of college football fans know about the Hawkeyes is that they haven’t been great in a long time. The team was excellent in the 2009 season, good enough to make and then win the 2010 Orange Bowl over Georgia Tech, a game that wasn’t even all that close. Iowa brought a lot of starters back in the 2010 season and was supposed to make the Rose Bowl for the first time under head coach Kirk Ferentz, but the season blew up in the Hawkeyes’ faces, and Iowa hasn’t been the same since. This season, a lot of people don’t expect much from Iowa, but it could be a season in which the Hawkeyes will sneak up on the opposition and maybe steal the Big Ten West Division championship.
Strengths
The Hawkeyes, whenever they’ve been at their best under Ferentz, who has now coached them for more than a decade, is when they’re stuffing opponents at the line of scrimmage. Ferentz’s signature is a tough run defense, one that begins with a fierce defensive line, one that can stand up to any opposing offensive line and get a stop on fourth and one. That’s Iowa football. The Hawkeyes need their defensive line to be at its best this season. If they can get that, they can build onto such a foundation and develop other players in accordance with the rhythms of the season. Having the cornerstone in place from the very beginning of the season will be essential.
Iowa also has the strength of knowing that a hard-nosed running back, Mark Weisman, will be back for another season. Weisman was so good at bouncing off initial tackles and getting second-chance yards last season. If he can continue to show the toughness that he brought to Iowa City last season, quarterback Jake Rudock might face a lot of very manageable second and third-down situations, giving Iowa the ability to run a balanced offense and control the ball.
Weaknesses
The Hawkeyes just haven’t had a really strong passing game in a long time. This is a team that likes to win with defense and the running game, and a lot of teams that try to win that way find themselves underdeveloped in the passing game when they really need something. Rudock will be questioned from day one, and it’s very unclear if he’s the man who can take hold of this offense and make it his own. The ability of Iowa to hit big pass plays on the perimeter is something this team will need to find and find often. It can’t be an occasional thing that only rarely surfaces. Iowa is known for wanting to play field position, but this offense can’t stall around the 40. It needs to finish a lot of the drives that only went two-thirds of the way down the field last year.
Schedule
The schedule is great. Iowa has to be very happy about how everything has lined up. Teams want their toughest games at home and their easier games on the road. Iowa generally gets that. The Hawkeyes visit Pittsburgh, Purdue, Maryland, and Illinois, with Minnesota being the hardest road game in the conference. Iowa hosts Wisconsin and Nebraska to close the season. If the Hawkeyes sweep those games, they’ll probably be in the Big Ten Championship Game as the West Division winner.
Outlook
The schedule does set up well for the Hawkeyes, but this offense is not ready to win nine games. Eight games is really where this team will probably wind up, but if you’re going to go over or under, it’s the under which is more likely.
Pick: Under 8 at +135
