The Michigan Wolverines are stuck in reverse. A team that made and won the 2012 Sugar Bowl has gone consistently backward since then. The coaching staff has received a major change, and it’s clear that progress is expected this upcoming season. However, Michigan has had a consistent problem over the past few years, and even in the Sugar Bowl season, it was still noticeable, just not as much as in the past two seasons. A fundamental solution to a longstanding problem is what’s needed in Ann Arbor. Head coach Brady Hoke hopes he’s been able to find the key to the lock. He has to open the door and walk through it.
Strengths
The Wolverines were fairly sound on run defense against most of the Big Ten teams they played last season. Michigan contained Nebraska and did its best to stay competitive on defense against Northwestern, Penn State, Minnesota, and others. Michigan achieved a few successes and was able to stay in a number of other games for at least two and a half quarters because of its defense. Without the run defense the Wolverines received, they would have had a much uglier season with at least one or two additional losses. A bowl bid might have been jeopardized.
Much of Michigan’s ability to field a solid defense comes from coordinator Greg Mattison, the best coach on the team’s larger coaching staff, better than Hoke himself. Mattison has been consistently above average in a long-running coaching career. Michigan was terrible on defense under previous defensive coordinator Greg Robinson, a man who was hired by the previous head coach, Rich Rodriguez. Mattison quickly restored order on defense and is properly seen as the person who has been the backbone of the program while the offense has tried to find itself.
Weaknesses
The Wolverines’ offense just can’t get itself straightened out. Michigan went away from its traditional pro-style offense under Rich Rodriguez, abandoning what Lloyd Carr and previous head coaches had done at Michigan. That shift meant a change in the kinds of recruits Michigan brought into the program on offense. Under Hoke, who likes the pro-style offense, Michigan has faced constant questions, challenges and problems about trying to match personnel and scheme. Current quarterback Devin Gardner is extremely talented. He’s fast and can buy a lot of time with his scrambling ability, but he’s not yet a pure pocket passer who can make the right read and get the ball to a receiver consistently. Michigan has to be able to get a quarterback who can drop back seven steps and reliably get the ball to the right receiver on time. The Wolverines also need to find a running game that can supplement their passing game. It’s been a long time since Michigan had a running back other teams’ defenses truly feared.
Schedule
The game at Notre Dame probably figured to be a loss until Notre Dame lost four starters (or at least faced the possibility of losing them) due to an academic cheating probe. Michigan could really benefit from that story if the starters are suspended for the Irish. A home game against Utah should be a win. This team will be challenged in the conference, but if it can win at Northwestern and at home against Penn State, it can win 10 games.
Outlook
The schedule is not conducive to winning the Big Ten East Division, but it is conducive to a nine-win season. The Wolverines won’t be a great team, but they’ll be good enough to make improvements.
Pick: Over 7.5 -155
