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NCAA Football Betting: Examining The Texas Longhorns Regular Season Win Total

The Texas Longhorns were coached by the very successful Mack Brown for the past 16 seasons, but the program ran out of momentum and the kinds of results it expects to put on the scoreboard. Brown was forced out of Austin, kicking and screaming, and now a new era begins for this powerhouse program. Charlie Strong comes from Louisville, trying to build back Texas football and make an even greater name for himself after a highly successful stint in the Big East and the American Athletic Conference.

Strengths

The Longhorns are going to be particularly strong at running back and along their defensive line. Texas brings back the two big-name backs who were so threatening as runners a season ago: Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray. Texas really didn’t run the ball as much as it could have or should have last year. If the Longhorns and their new coaching staff make a commitment to the running game and can establish both Brown and Gray behind the team’s offensive line, Texas could surpass expectations in year one of Strong’s reign in Austin. That pursuit of rushing excellence should be the Longhorns’ central focus on offense.

On defense, the Longhorns return defensive end Cedric Reed, seen by many as a first-round NFL draft pick next spring, and tackle Malcom Brown, not to be confused with running back Malcolm Brown, mentioned above. If Reed and Brown draw so much attention that they’ll require doubleteams from opposing offenses, other members of the front four, not to mention the linebackers, will have so many more chances to make big plays on defense this season.

Weaknesses

The Longhorns don’t know what they have at quarterback. David Ash is talented, but he is extremely frail. He was unable to play for almost all of the 2013 season due to concussive events and the symptoms that flowed from them. When players absorb concussions and are held out of play because of them, their safety and well being become paramount concerns. Ash could very well be too physically brittle for this job. If he’s unable to make it through the whole season without an injury, the Longhorns could be in huge trouble, because they really do want Ash to be the guy for the full 2014 season.

Schedule

The Longhorns host BYU in week two, a game they need to win after getting ripped by the Cougars a year ago. They then face UCLA in Arlington, Texas, in Jerry Jones’ place. The Longhorns need to win one of those two games to feel good about themselves heading into Big 12 contests. In the Big 12, the schedule is front-loaded. Baylor and Oklahoma arrive on the schedule before the halfway point of October. Kansas State is a late-October game. The Longhorns need to grow up quickly this season. They can’t play their way into form by the time November arrives. They have to be on top of their game by the end of September.

Outlook

The Longhorns are almost certain to lose to UCLA, Baylor, Oklahoma, and Kansas State. Will they lose a fifth game? It’s hard to say, but Ash’s health merits doubt and skepticism right now. The Longhorns will probably stumble against one team they should beat. The under is the better selection.

Pick: Under 7.5 at -115

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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