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NCAA Football Free ATS Pick: FIU Golden Panthers at Charlotte 49ers

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Two schools that like to mix in a lot of running plays, 49ers (+5.5) are set to welcome their conference counterpart FIU Golden Panthers (-5.5) to Charlotte. ESPN 3 owns the TV rights and kickoff is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET.

FIU Golden Panthers at Charlotte 49ers Betting Preview

Charlotte is a live dog and is currently getting 5.5 points in this CUSA matchup. The Golden Panthers are also receiving -235 moneyline odds while the 49ers are +185. If one side catches a lucky break in the early stages it’ll generate a nice in-game betting scenario. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 48 points.

The game’s opening line was originally 6.5 while the total was set initially at 48.5, so the general public is favoring the Niners.

Both of these teams have been profitable this season as the Golden Panthers have gained 2.8 units while the 49ers are ahead 1.8 units.

The Golden Panthers are 7-3 straight up (SU), including 5-1 SU against CUSA opponents. The 49ers are 4-6 SU overall and 3-3 SU in conference play.

The Golden Panthers are coming off a resounding 45-7 victory over UTSA last week. James Morgan completed 19-of-29 passes for 291 yards and three touchdowns. Shawndarrius Phillips (64 yards on 10 rushes) led the ground attack while Tony Gaiter IV (four receptions, 49 yards, one TD) and Bryce Singleton (four catches, 39 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Charlotte most-recently suffered a brutal 30-13 loss to Marshall. Evan Shirreffs completed eight-of-18 passes for 74 yards. Benny LeMay (70 yards on 13 rush attempts) led the running game while Rico Arnold (four receptions, 49 yards) and Aaron McAllister (one catch, zero yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

FIU’s run the ball on 57.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Charlotte has a rush percentage of 61.3 percent. The Golden Panthers have produced 165 rush yards per game (including 153 per game versus Conference USA opponents) and have 18 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Niners are averaging 135 rushing yards per game (143 in conference) and have 12 total rush TDs.

It appears that the Golden Panthers could own an advantage when it comes to quarterback protection. Their offensive line has given up just 29 sacks while the D-line registered 22 sacks. The 49ers O-line has given up 22 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 11 times.

The Golden Panthers offensive scheme has averaged 248 yards in the air overall (258 per game against conference opposition) and has 24 passing scores so far. The Niners have produced 180 pass yards per game (165.3 in the CUSA) and have eight total pass TDs.

FIU appears to hold an edge when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 195 yards and pass for 183 yards per game. The Charlotte defense has given up 218.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 88.2 yards per game to opposing runners. The Golden Panthers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.48 to opponents, while the Niners have given up a 6.77 ANY/A.

Offensively, Morgan is up to 2,059 passing yards this season. He’s completed 65 percent of his 230 attempts with 22 scores through the air and only four interceptions. He has a pristine 9.52 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.81 over the last two games.

In the host locker room, Evan Shirreffs has connected on 41-of-79 passes for 479 yards, two TDs and three INTs. Shirreffs’ ANY/A stands at a horrendous 3.52 for the year and 2.64 over his last two outings.

When these two squads faced each other a year ago, FIU emerged victorious by a final score of 30-29.

RELATED: Week 12 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions 

Free Prediction: FIU Golden Panthers at Charlotte 49ers

SU Winner – FIU, ATS Winner – FIU, O/U – Over

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Notes

Team Betting Notes

The Golden Panthers offense has produced nine pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the 49ers have accounted for six such plays.

The FIU defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Charlotte has given up eight such plays.

The FIU offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Charlotte has created nine such runs.

The Golden Panthers defense has allowed 16 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the 49ers have given up six such runs.

The Charlotte defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 18 times this year. FIU has registered 17 sacks.

As a team, FIU has rushed for 3.9 yards per attempt over its last three outings and 3.3 over its last two.

Charlotte has averaged 2.9 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 2.6 over its last two.

Over its last three games, Charlotte is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for FIU’s last game was 48. The over cashed in the team’s 45-7 win over UTSA.

In its last three matches, FIU is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.

The O/U for Charlotte’s previous matchup was 42. The over cashed in the team’s 30-13 defeat to Marshall.

FIU has won six of its last seven games SU, with a 35-point loss to Florida Atlantic on November 3rd representing the only defeat over that stretch.

Charlotte has lost four of its last five games SU, with a three-point win over Southern Miss on October 27th accounting for the only victory over that span.

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Written by GMS Previews

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