The Arkansas State Red Wolves (-3.5) are set to face off against the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns at Cajun Field. This SBC matchup kicks off at 7:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to ESPN+. When these two squads faced each other a year ago, Arkansas State knocked off Louisiana soundly 47-3.
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns Betting Preview
In this Saturday Sun Belt game, Arkansas State is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 3.5 points. The Red Wolves are also receiving -175 moneyline odds while the Ragin’ Cajuns are +155. Should one team can find paydirt early on it will create a worthy betting opportunity in-game. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 65.5 points.
The game’s O/U has moved upward after opening at 65. The original line of 3.5 hasn’t shifted.
The Red Wolves have gained 0.5 units so far in 2018 and are 2-5 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 2-4. The Ragin’ Cajuns are up 1.4 units this season. The team is 5-2 ATS and has an O/U record of 4-2.
The Red Wolves have gone 4-3 straight up (SU), including 1-2 SU against conference opponents. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 3-4 SU overall and 1-2 SU in conference play.
The Red Wolves are looking to maintain momentum after a solid 51-35 win over Georgia State last week. Justice Hansen completed 17-of-28 passes for 257 yards and three touchdowns. Warren Wand (71 rushing yards on 13 attempts) and the signal-caller Hansen (76 yards on 11 carries, two TDs) spearheaded the running attack. Justin McInnis (six receptions, 86 yards, one TD) and Kirk Merritt (four catches, 21 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
One game ago, Appalachian State knocked off this Louisiana crew by a score of 27-17. The Ragin’ Cajuns defense let the Mountaineers eat up the clock by running for 258 yards on 47 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Darrynton Evans was a force to be reckoned with, putting up 183 rushing yards and a score on 26 attempts for Appalachian State. For Louisiana, Andre Nunez completed 14-of-23 passes for 108 yards. Trey Ragas (81 rushing yards on 18 attempts, one TD) and Elijah Mitchell (37 yards on 10 carries) handled the running game as Ryheem Malone (three receptions, 47 yards) and Matt Barnes (three catches, 24 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.
Arkansas State’s run the ball on 49.1 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 47.0 percent across possessions in conference play. Louisiana has an overall run percentage of 61.1 percent, and has rushed the ball 64.0 percent of the time against SBC opponents. The Red Wolves have produced 181 rush yards per game (including 169 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have seven scores on the ground this year. The Ragin’ Cajuns are averaging 233 rush yards per game (235 in conference) and have 15 total rushing TDs.
The Red Wolves offensive scheme has tallied 280 yards per game in the air overall (284 per game against conference opposition) and has 15 passing TDs so far. The Ragin’ Cajuns have put up 221 pass yards per game (187.0 against SBC competition) and have 16 total pass scores.
Defensively, Arkansas State appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has let opponents rush for an average of 227 yards and throw for 169 yards per game. The Louisiana D has given up 236.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 223.0 yards per game on the ground. The Red Wolves are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.44 to opposing QBs, while the Ragin’ Cajuns have allowed an 8.31 ANY/A.
Offensively, Hansen is up to 1,586 passing yards on the year. The signal-caller has completed 135-of-210 attempts with 14 passing scores and only two interceptions. He has a 7.48 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.15 over the last two games.
Look for a balanced attack offensively from Arkansas State in this one. As a group, Marcel Murray, Justin McInnis and Justice Hansen have combined to account for 415 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
In the home locker room, Andre Nunez has completed 79-of-121 passes for 873 yards, six TDs and four INTs. Nunez’s ANY/A sits at 5.76 for the year and 9.96 across his past two outings.
We’re expecting the Ragin’ Cajuns to control tempo by putting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Earnest Patterson (149 receiving yards, one TD this season) has contributed lately, but Trey Ragas (586 rush yards, five rush TDs, 70 receiving yards) and Elijah Mitchell (390 rush yards, four rush TDs, 118 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have really been key factors in the Louisiana offense.
RELATED: Week 9 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Free Pick: Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
SU Winner – Arkansas State, ATS Winner – Arkansas State, O/U – Under
Click Here to Start Betting Today!
Notes
Betting Trends
The Red Wolves offense has registered one pass play of 40 or more yards, while the Ragin’ Cajuns have accounted for four such plays.
The Arkansas State defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40+ yards, while Louisiana has given up five such plays.
The Arkansas State offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Louisiana has created 16 such runs.
The Red Wolves defense has allowed 15 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Ragin’ Cajuns have given up 12 such runs.
The Arkansas State D has sacked opposing QBs 18 times this year. Louisiana has recorded 15 sacks.
Arkansas State has produced 4.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.3 over its last two.
Louisiana has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.0 over its past two.
In its last three games, Louisiana is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Arkansas State’s last game was set at 57. The over cashed in the team’s 51-35 win over Georgia State.
In its last three matches, Arkansas State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Louisiana’s previous outing was set at 64.5. The under cashed in that 27-17 loss to Appalachian State.
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