The No. 10 UCF Knights and East Carolina Pirates will face off on the grass of Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. The opening kickoff for this game is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET and ESPN2 will broadcast the action.
UCF Knights vs. East Carolina Pirates Betting Preview
UCF is the heavy road favorite and is currently giving up 21 points to East Carolina. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 64.5 points, and should one team can get out in front early, it will likely create a worthy betting opportunity in-game.
The sharp action is siding with the under, as this game’s over/under initially opened at 65.5.
The surprising Knights have gained 3.0 units so far in 2018 and are 4-2 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 2-4. The Pirates are down 2.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-4 ATS and own an even O/U record of 3-3.
The Knights are 6-0 straight up (SU), including 3-0 SU against AAC opponents. The Pirates are 2-4 SU overall and 0-3 SU in conference play.
The Knights are hoping to remain unbeaten following a 31-30 victory over Memphis last week. McKenzie Milton completed 17-of-29 passes for 296 yards and one touchdown. Gabriel Davis (six receptions, 128 yards, one TD) and Marlon Williams (four catches, 56 yards) shared the receiving duties.
East Carolina just dropped a demoralizing 42-20 game to Houston. The defense allowed the Cougars to kill the clock by running for 157 yards on 43 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Courtney Lark put up a productive showing for Houston, posting 79 yards and a score on three catches. As a group, the Pirates collectively completed 38-of-63 passes for 374 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Reid Herring went 26-for-42 for 229 yards and two interceptions while Holton Ahlers was 11-of-18 for 137 yards and one touchdown. Darius Pinnix (15 yards on 11 rush attempts) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat as Trevon Brown (13 receptions, 153 yards, one TD) and Tahj Deans (six catches, 40 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
UCF has run the ball on 55.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while East Carolina has an overall rush percentage of 42.7 percent. The Knights have run for 252 yards per game (including 239 per game against American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 20 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Pirates are logging 123 rushing yards per game (91 in conference) and have eight total rush TDs.
The Knights offense has averaged 304 yards through the air overall (312 per game versus conference opposition) and has 16 passing TDs so far. The Pirates have recorded 278 pass yards per outing (250.0 against AAC foes) and have seven total pass scores.
Defensively, UCF should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 198 yards and throw for 180 yards per game. The East Carolina defense has allowed 233.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 118.2 yards per game on the ground. The Knights are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.97 to opposing QBs, while the Pirates have given up a 6.87 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Milton is up to 1,519 yards this year. He’s completed 61 percent of his 166 attempts with 14 passing scores and only three interceptions. He has a sparkling 9.45 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.36 over the last two games.
Reid Herring has managed to complete 127-of-229 passes for 1,390 yards, six TDs and seven INTs for East Carolina. His ANY/A stands at a less-than-spectacular 4.95 for the season and 2.75 over his past two outings.
These two teams faced off last year with the final result being a 63-21 win for UCF.
RELATED: Week 8 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Betting Pick: UCF Knights vs. East Carolina Pirates
SU Winner – East Carolina, ATS Winner – East Carolina, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Over/Under for UCF’s last game was set at 80. The under cashed in the team’s 31-30 win over Memphis.
UCF has produced 5.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.3 over its last two.
East Carolina has averaged 3.1 yards per carry over its last three games and only 2.0 over its last two.
East Carolina has lost two fumbles this season while UCF has lost one.
Over its last three contests, UCF is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
The Over/Under for East Carolina’s previous match was set at 69. The under cashed in the 42-20 defeat to Houston.
In its last three matchups, East Carolina is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
East Carolina has lost four of its last five games SU, with a two-point victory over Old Dominion on September 29th representing its one win over that stretch.
The Knights offense has recorded four pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Pirates have put up two such plays.
The UCF defense has allowed one pass play of 40 or more yards, while East Carolina has given up four such plays.
The UCF offense has created 16 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while East Carolina has created seven such runs.
The Knights defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Pirates have given up nine such runs.
The East Carolina defensive unit has produced more than twice the sack total of UCF this year (21 versus 10).
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