In a battle of two teams that like running the football, Razorbacks of Arkansas (-34.5) are gearing up to welcome the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide to Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. This SEC game starts at 12:00 p.m. ET and ESPN is in line to have the TV rights.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview
Alabama is significantly favored here and is currently giving up 34.5 points to Arkansas. If the Razorbacks get out in front early it will create a nice in-game betting opportunity. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 60.5 points.
The under has received most of the early sharp action. This game’s over/under was originally set at 62.
The Crimson Tide have gained 0.0 units so far and are 3-2 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 4-1. The hapless Razorbacks have lost 10.6 units this season. They’re 2-3 ATS and have an O/U record of 0-4.
The Crimson Tide are 5-0 straight up (SU), including 2-0 SU against conference opponents. The Razorbacks are 1-4 SU overall and 0-2 SU in conference play.
These two squads met last year with the final outcome being a 41-9 win for Alabama.
The Crimson Tide are looking to remain unbeaten after a 56-14 win over Louisiana last week in which the Crimson Tide completed 13-of-16 passes for 340 yards and four touchdowns. Tua Tagovailoa went eight-for-8 for 128 yards and two touchdowns while Jalen Hurts completed four-of-six for 118 yards and one touchdown. Brian Robinson Jr. (65 rushing yards on 12 attempts) and Najee Harris (73 yards on 11 carries, one TD) led the ground attack while Henry Ruggs III (five receptions, 116 yards, two TDs) and Jaylen Waddle (three catches, 138 yards, two TDs) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Arkansas just fell 24-17 to Texas A&M. The defense let the Aggies kill the clock by rushing for 176 yards on 46 attempts, including two rush TDs. Trayveon Williams was outstanding, recording 152 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 29 attempts for the Aggies. For Arkansas, Ty Storey completed 14-of-26 passes for 193 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Storey (1 yards on 10 rush attempts) and Rakeem Boyd (47 yards on 10 carries) mounted the running game while Boyd (four receptions, 33 yards) and Cheyenne O’Grady (three catches, 77 yards) led the Arkansas pass-catchers in the loss.
Alabama has run the ball on 60.7 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 54.1 percent across possessions in conference play. Arkansas has a rush percentage of 54.5 percent, and has kept it on the ground 52.0 percent of the time when facing SEC opponents. The Crimson Tide have produced 217 rush yards/game (including 160 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 12 scores on the ground this year. The Razorbacks are averaging 142 rush yards per game (102 in conference) and have six total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Crimson Tide should own an edge along both the offensive and defensive fronts, since their offensive line has given up only 27 sacks while their D-line registered 40 sacks. The Razorbacks offensive line has allowed 35 sacks and their defense has generated only 19 sacks.
The Tide offensive scheme has averaged a stellar 336 yards through the air overall (361 per game against conference opposition) and has 20 passing TDs so far. The Razorbacks have put up 207 pass yards per contest (167.0 against SEC foes) and have seven total pass scores.
Defensively, Alabama seems to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 127 rush yards and 191 pass yards per game. The Arkansas D has allowed 247.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 105.8 yards per game on the ground. The Tide are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.01 to opposing QBs, while the Razorbacks have allowed a 5.84 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Tagovailoa has amassed 774 yards this season. He’s connected on 44-of-58 attempts with 10 scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. Tagovailoa’s got a pristine 16.02 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 16.71 over the last two games.
In the other locker room, Ty Storey has connected on 31-of-56 passes for 490 yards, four TDs and three INTs. Storey’s ANY/A sits at 6.72 for the season and 3.44 across his past two outings.
RELATED: Week 6 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Betting Pick: Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks
SU Winner – Arkansas, ATS Winner – Arkansas, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Crimson Tide offense has produced nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Razorbacks have accounted for five such plays.
The Alabama defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Arkansas has given up three such plays.
The Alabama offense has created six rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Arkansas has created four such runs.
The Crimson Tide defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Razorbacks have given up two such runs.
The Alabama defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 18 times this season. Arkansas has recorded just 12 sacks.
Alabama has averaged 4.97457627118644 yards per carry over its past three outings and 5.1 over its last two.
Arkansas has averaged 3.4 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.2 over its last two.
Over its last three matches, Arkansas is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
Alabama was favored by 48 points in its last game and the Over/Under was 69. The over cashed and Alabama did not cover in the 56-14 victory over Louisiana.
Over its last three matchups, Alabama is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Arkansas was favored by 19 points in its last match and the Over/Under was set at 56.5. The under cashed and Arkansas failed to cover in the 24-17 loss to Texas A&M.
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