In the Dollar General Bowl, the Troy Trojans are underdogs against the Buffalo Bulls. ESPN has the TV rights and the game is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET.
Buffalo Bulls vs. Troy Trojans Betting Preview
In this Saturday game, Buffalo is labeled as the favorite and is currently giving up 2.5 points. The Bulls are also receiving -140 moneyline odds while the Trojans are +120. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 54 points. On the surface it looks like there should be multiple good live betting opportunities for this match.
Betting odds have shifted a bit from where they originally opened. The line opened at 3 and the game’s total was placed initially at 53.5.
Both of these teams have been profitable this year as the Bulls have gained 4.3 units while the Trojans are up 2.9 units.
The Bulls are 10-3 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Trojans are 9-3 SU.
The Bulls dropped one to Northern Illinois 30-29 in a nailbiter where their D allowed the Huskies to pass for 300 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 109 yards. D.J. Brown had a productive day for the opposition in that one with 84 yards and two touchdowns on four catches. On the offense, Tyree Jackson completed only 18 passes on 35 attempts for 252 yards and two touchdowns. Jaret Patterson (72 yards on 18 rushes, one TD) and Kevin Marks (72 yards on 17 carries, one TD) led the running attack while Anthony Johnson (seven receptions, 124 yards, two TDs) and K.J. Osborn (three catches, 66 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
Troy just suffered a 21-10 loss to Appalachian State. The defense let the Mountaineers run for 201 yards on 45 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Darrynton Evans put up a productive showing for Appalachian State, recording 108 rushing yards on 20 attempts. For Troy, Sawyer Smith completed 17-of-34 passes for 160 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. B.J. Smith (53 yards on 15 rush attempts) handled the running attack while Deondre Douglas (six receptions, 69 yards, one TD) and Sidney Davis (four catches, 20 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Each squad sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Buffalo has run the ball on 59.0 percent of its offensive possessions while Troy has a rush percentage of 57.9. Having said that, the Bulls have produced 196 rush yards/game and have 34 scores on the ground this year. The Trojans haven’t been quite as productive, as they’re averaging 180 rush yards per game and have 19 total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Trojans should hold an advantage when it comes to efficiency in the ground game. Their backfield has produced 4.8 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.3 to opponents. The Bulls have tallied 4.6 yards per carry while allowing 4.2 YPC to opponents.
The Bulls offense has averaged 222 yards through the air overall and has 27 passing TDs so far. The Trojans have produced 207 pass yards per contest and have 21 total pass scores.
Buffalo seems to possess an edge when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 165 yards and pass for 185 yards per game. The Troy defense has given up 214.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 130.9 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Bulls have given up an ANY/A of 5.01 to opposing QBs, while the Trojans are yielding an ANY/A of 4.96.
Offensively, Jackson is up to 2,706 passing yards this year, and has completed 55 percent of his 352 attempts with 26 passing scores and 10 interceptions. He’s got a 7.43 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.46 over the last two games.
The Bulls will likely try to control the pace by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. The tagteam of Jaret Patterson (858 rush yards, 11 rush TDs) and Kevin Marks (742 rush yards, 10 rush TDs, 30 receiving yards) have delivered in the Buffalo offensive scheme.
Sawyer Smith has completed 100-of-159 passes for 1,270 yards, 10 TDs and six INTs for Troy. His ANY/A sits at 6.82 for the season and 2.25 over his last two games.
The Trojans also like to leverage their backfield. In addition to B.J. Smith (102 receiving yards), Deondre Douglas (81 rush yards, 423 receiving yards, seven receiving TDs) and Sidney Davis (six rush yards, 294 receiving yards, two TDs) have gotten plenty of touches recently.
Betting Prediction: Buffalo Bulls vs. Troy Trojans
SU Winner – Buffalo, ATS Winner – Buffalo, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
Buffalo has averaged 5.0 yards per carry across its last three outings and 4.6 over its last two.
Troy has averaged 3.0 yards per carry over its last three games and only 2.7 over its past two.
The Troy offense has lost 12 fumbles this season while Buffalo has let four get away.
The Bulls offense has created 14 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Trojans have accounted for 12 such plays.
Both teams have allowed nine pass plays of 40 yards or more. The Buffalo defense has given up 16 pass plays of 30+ yards while Troy has yielded 17 such plays.
The Buffalo offense has created 17 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Troy has created 22 such runs.
The Bulls defense has allowed 16 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Trojans have given up 15 such runs.
The Troy D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 36 times this year. Buffalo has recorded 34 sacks.
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