The No. 24 Virginia Tech Hokies (-5) will clash with their conference counterpart North Carolina Tar Heels at Kenan Memorial Stadium. ESPNU is scheduled to televise the action and the game gets underway at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview
North Carolina is projected to play the role of underdog and is currently getting 5 points in this Saturday ACC game. The Hokies are also receiving -220 moneyline odds while the Tar Heels are +180. If one side catches a lucky break in the early stages, it’ll probably create a worthy in-game betting opportunity.
The line initially opened at 6 and early action has swayed in favor of the Heels.
The profitable Hokies are 3-2 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 3.7 units so far in 2018. The team has posted an O/U record of 3-2. The Tar Heels have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 9.1 units. The team is 1-2-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-1.
The Hokies are 3-2 straight up (SU), including 2-0 SU against conference opponents. The Tar Heels are 1-3 SU overall and 1-1 SU in conference play.
The Hokies came up short to Notre Dame 45-23 in a thumping where Ryan Willis completed 31-of-52 passes for 309 yards, two scores and one interception. Damon Hazelton (12 receptions, 131 yards, one TD) and Eric Kumah (four catches, 48 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
North Carolina just suffered a 47-10 loss to Miami (FL). The team’s defense allowed the Hurricanes to run for 229 yards on 34 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. DeeJay Dallas put up a solid showing for Miami (FL), posting 114 rushing yards and a score on 11 attempts. As a group, the Heels collectively completed 20-of-35 passes for 114 yards and three interceptions. Nathan Elliott went 16-for-25 for 104 yards while Chazz Surratt was four-of-10 for 10 yards and three interceptions. Chazz Surratt (69 rushing yards on nine attempts, one TD) and Michael Carter (75 yards on seven carries) spearheaded the running game as Thomas Jackson (three receptions, 23 yards) and Jordon Brown (three catches, six yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.
Virginia Tech has run the ball on 56.2 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 60.0 percent across possessions in conference play. North Carolina has a rush percentage of 49.7 percent, and has kept it on the ground 54.8 percent of the time against ACC opponents. The Hokies have produced 190 rush yards/game (including 97 per game against Atlantic Coast opponents) and have 10 scores on the ground this year. The Heels are putting up 178 rushing yards per game (194 in conference) and have six total rush TDs.
The Hokies offense has tallied 282 yards per game through the air overall (270 per game against conference opposition) and has 11 passing scores so far. The Heels have produced 200 pass yards per outing (213.5 in the ACC) and have three total pass TDs.
Virginia Tech has let opponents run for an average of 101 yards and pass for 297 yards per game. The North Carolina defense has given up 177.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 209.3 yards per game on the ground. The Heels are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.64 to opponents, while the Hokies have allowed a 6.57 ANY/A.
Offensively, Willis has put up 504 passing yards on the year. He’s completed 57 percent of his 77 attempts with three scores through the air and one interception. He has a 6.19 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 8.11 over the last two outings.
Damon Hazelton, Steven Peoples and Eric Kumah have collectively accounted for 461 total yards and four touchdowns as a trio over the last couple of outings.
Nathan Elliott has completed 53-of-98 passes for 460 yards, one TD and four INTs for North Carolina. His ANY/A sits at a very poor 2.98 for the season and 7.62 across his past two outings.
We’re thinking the Heels will control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Anthony Ratliff-Williams (179 receiving yards, one TD this season) has chipped in lately, but Antonio Williams (167 rush yards, one rush TD) and Michael Carter (75 rush yards, five receiving yards) have been significant factors in the North Carolina offense.
These two teams met last year with the final outcome being a 59-7 win for Virginia Tech.
RELATED: Week 7 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Betting Prediction: Virginia Tech Hokies vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
SU Winner – Virginia Tech, ATS Winner – Virginia Tech
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
Virginia Tech was getting 7 points in its last game and the Over/Under was set at 53.5. The over cashed and Virginia Tech failed to cover in the 45-23 defeat to Notre Dame.
Virginia Tech has averaged 4.31707317073171 yards per rush attempt over its last three contests and 2.9 over its last two.
North Carolina has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.8 over its past two.
The North Carolina offense has lost four fumbles this season while Virginia Tech has let two get away.
In its last three matchups, Virginia Tech is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
North Carolina was favored by 18 points in its last outing and the O/U was 55.5. The over cashed and North Carolina failed to cover in the 47-10 defeat to Miami (FL).
In its last three games, North Carolina is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
The Hokies offense has created three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Tar Heels have accounted for two such plays.
The Virginia Tech defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while North Carolina has given up two such plays.
The Virginia Tech offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while North Carolina has created 10 such runs.
The Hokies defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Tar Heels have given up nine such runs.
The Virginia Tech defensive unit has 14 sacks on the year while North Carolina has 11.
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