The North Texas Mean Green (-14.5) and Old Dominion Monarchs will square off on the turf at Foreman Field at S.B. Ballard Stadium. This afternoon game is scheduled to commence at 3:30 p.m. ET and ESPN 3 will broadcast the action.
North Texas Mean Green at Old Dominion Monarchs Betting Preview
In this Saturday Conference USA game, North Texas is projected as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 14.5 points. The Mean Green are also receiving -750 moneyline odds while the Monarchs are +510. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 64 points. If North Texas allows a touchdown or two early, it will likely create a reasonable in-game betting opportunity.
Sharp bettors tend to be siding with the Mean Green. The opening line was originally 13.5 and the over/under was initially placed at 63.5.
The Mean Green have recorded 0.5 units so far and are 4-5 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an O/U mark of 0-9. The Monarchs have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 6.8 units. They’re 3-6 ATS and own an O/U record of 8-1.
The Mean Green have gone 7-2 straight up (SU), including 3-2 SU against CUSA opponents. The Monarchs are 2-7 SU overall and 1-5 SU in conference play.
The Mean Green hope to make it two in a row 41-17 victory over Rice on October 27 where Mason Fine completed only 18 passes on 35 attempts for 333 yards and two touchdowns. DeAndre Torrey (130 yards on 15 rush attempts, three TDs) led the running attack. Rico Bussey, Jr. (four receptions, 145 yards, one TD) and Michael Lawrence (four catches, 69 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Old Dominion just dropped a brutal 51-17 game to Middle Tennessee. Blake LaRussa completed 26-of-35 passes for 333 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. Kesean Strong (108 rushing yards on 17 attempts) and Matt Geiger (53 yards on seven carries) spearheaded the running game as Travis Fulgham (10 receptions, 215 yards, one TD) and Jonathan Duhart (six catches, 36 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
Each of these teams sports a similar (47-53) run-pass ratio on the season. Having said that, the Mean Green have produced 147 rush yards per game (including 132 per game versus Conference USA opponents) and have 18 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Monarchs haven’t been quite as productive, as they’re totaling 122 rush yards per game (135 in conference) and have 15 total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Mean Green may own the edge when it comes to RB effectiveness, as their running backs has produced 4.2 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.3 YPC to opponents. The Monarchs have recorded 3.6 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 5.4 to opponents.
The Mean Green offense has averaged 326 yards through the air overall (310 per game versus conference opposition) and has 21 passing TDs so far. The Monarchs have produced 309 pass yards per contest (310.7 against CUSA foes) and have 16 total pass scores.
Defensively, North Texas should have the upper hand in both facets. The team has let opponents rush for an average of 109 yards and throw for 232 yards per game. The Old Dominion defense has allowed 278.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 232.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Mean Green are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.34 to opponents, while the Monarchs have given up an 8.07 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Fine has already put up 2,543 yards on the year. He’s completed 192-of-304 attempts with 18 scores through the air and only one interception. Fine’s got a pristine 8.68 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.94 over the last two outings.
Rico Bussey, Jr., DeAndre Torrey and Jaelon Darden have collectively accounted for 592 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns over the last two outings.
Blake LaRussa has connected on 159-of-244 passes for 1,947 yards, 13 TDs and seven INTs for Old Dominion. His ANY/A sits at 6.69 for the season and 7.81 across his last two outings.
Travis Fulgham (704 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns on the year), Kesean Strong (297 rush yards, five rush TDs, 108 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Jonathan Duhart (773 receiving yards, seven receiving TDs) have combined to account for 705 total yards and five touchdowns the past two games.
When these two schools met last year, North Texas won by a touchdown 45-38.
NCAA Prediction: North Texas Mean Green at Old Dominion Monarchs
SU Winner – Old Dominion, ATS Winner – Old Dominion, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The O/U for North Texas’ last game was set at 58.5. The under cashed in the team’s 41-17 win over Rice.
North Texas has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.9 over its last two.
Old Dominion has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.8 over its last two.
Both teams have lost seven fumbles this year.
In its last three matchups, North Texas is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
North Texas has won four of its last five games SU, with an October 20th defeat to UAB accounting for the only loss over that span.
The Over/Under for Old Dominion’s last match was set at 62. The over cashed in the 51-17 defeat to Middle Tennessee.
In its last three matchups, Old Dominion is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
The Mean Green offense has created nine pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Monarchs have accounted for seven such plays.
The North Texas defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Old Dominion has given up nine such plays.
The North Texas offense has created 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Old Dominion has created eight such runs.
The Mean Green defense has allowed 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Monarchs have given up 21 such runs.
The North Texas defense has twice as many sacks as Old Dominion this year (28 to 14).
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