The No. 23 Longhorns of Texas (-3) are gearing up to host the USC Trojans at Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium/Jamail Field. The game will start at 8:00 p.m. ET and interested parties can tune in to the action on FOX.
USC Trojans vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Preview
USC is the road underdog in this matchup and is currently getting 3 points. The Trojans are also receiving +135 moneyline odds while the Longhorns are -155. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 48.5 points. There should be multiple good live betting scenarios for this game.
The game’s O/U has shifted downward after opening at 49. The original line (-3) has stayed consistent.
The Trojans have lost 1.0 unit this season and are 0-2 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 1-1. The disappointing Longhorns have lost 5.0 units this year. They’re 0-2 ATS and also have an O/U record of 1-1.
The Trojans are 1-1 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Longhorns are also 1-1 SU.
The Trojans are on the rebound after a 17-3 loss to Stanford last week. JT Daniels completed just 16-of-34 passes for 215 yards and two interceptions. Aca’Cedric Ware (just 59 rushing yards on 18 attempts) and Stephen Carr (52 yards on 10 carries) provided the ground attack in the loss while Tyler Vaughns (seven receptions, 84 yards) and Michael Pittman Jr. (three catches, 65 yards) handled the receiving duties.
Texas just put together a 28-21 win over Tulsa. The defense allowed the Golden Hurricane to run for 189 yards on 38 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Keylon Stokes had a productive showing in the defeat, posting 48 rushing yards on three attempts, along with 62 yards on three catches for Tulsa. For Texas, Sam Ehlinger completed 21-of-27 passes for 237 yards and two touchdowns. Tre Watson (74 rushing yards on 18 attempts) and the signal-caller Ehlinger (51 yards on 12 carries, one TD) led the ground game in the win as Lil’Jordan Humphrey (seven receptions, 109 yards, one TD) and Collin Johnson (four catches, 37 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
USC has run the ball on 51.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Texas has a rush percentage of 55.7 percent. The Trojans have produced 167 rush yards/game and have three touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Longhorns are averaging 192 rush yards per game and have four total rushing TDs.
If the results so far this season are any indication, then it’s looking like the Longhorns may hold an advantage when it comes to RB effectiveness. Their running backs has produced 4.6 yards per carry while their defense has allowed 4.0 YPC to opponents. The Trojans have registered 4.4 yards per carry while allowing 6.5 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Trojans offensive scheme has averaged 250 yards in the air overall and has only one passing scores so far. The Longhorns have put up 250 pass yards per outing and have four total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, USC should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 234 rush yards and 140 pass yards per game. The Texas defense has allowed 214 yards per game to opposing passers and 166.0 yards per game on the ground. The Trojans are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.32 to opposing QBs, while the Longhorns have given up a 6.38 ANY/A.
Offensively, Daniels has amassed 215 passing yards this year, and has connected on 16-of-34 attempts with zero passing scores and two interceptions. He has a 2.50 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.09 over the past two games.
Aca’Cedric Ware (59 rushing yards this season), Amon-Ra St. Brown (39 receiving yards) and Tyler Vaughns (84 receiving yards) have each played big roles lately.
Sam Ehlinger has completed 21-of-27 passes for 237 yards, two TDs and zero INTs for Texas. His ANY/A sits at 10.26 for the season and 7.25 over his past two games.
We’re expecting the Longhorns to control the game’s clock by pounding the defense with their running backs. In addition to Lil’Jordan Humphrey (109 receiving yards, one receiving TD this season), Tre Watson (74 rush yards, one receiving TD) and Keaontay Ingram (64 rush yards, one rush TD) have brought significant production to the Longhorns’ recent offensive gameplans.
When these two programs faced each other last year, USC won by a field goal 27-24.
Betting Prediction: USC Trojans vs. Texas Longhorns
SU Winner – USC, ATS Winner – USC, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Trojans offense has recorded three pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Longhorns have put up one such play.
The USC defense has allowed zero pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Texas has given up two such plays.
The USC offense has created three rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Texas has created two such runs.
The Trojans defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Longhorns have given up three such runs.
The USC D has five sacks on the year while Texas has one.
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