Two schools that like to run the football, Coach Josh Heupel and the No. 11 UCF Knights (-26) are prepared to host their AAC rival Navy Midshipmen at Spectrum Stadium. ESPN2 will televise the action and kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET.
Navy Midshipmen at UCF Knights Betting Preview
Navy is a heavy road dog here and is currently getting 26 points by bookmakers. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 63 points. Some good live betting scenarios may be unveiled during the game.
This matchup’s betting odds have swayed slightly from when they were initially posted. The opening line was -25 while the game’s over/under was originally set at 62.5.
The disappointing Midshipmen are 2-7 against the spread (ATS) and are down 10.9 units this season. The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-4. The surprising Knights are up 4.0 units in 2018. They’re 6-2 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-5.
The perfect Midshipmen are only 2-7 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against AAC opponents. The Knights are 8-0 SU overall and 5-0 SU in conference play.
The Midshipmen might already be looking ahead to 2019 following a 42-point loss to Cincinnati last week where the Midshipmen completed 3-of-4 passes for 47 yards. Zach Abey went three-for-4 for 47 yards while Malcolm Perry completed -of- for yards. Abey (37 yards on 28 rush attempts) also mounted the ground attack in the loss. Perry (one receptions, 32 yards) and Ryan Mitchell (one catch, 10 yards) handled the receiving duties.
UCF enters this one having just earned a 52-40 win over Temple. The team’s defensive unit allowed the Owls to pass for 444 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 226 yards. Ryquell Armstead had a good showing in the loss for Temple, recording 142 rushing yards on 27 attempts. For UCF, McKenzie Milton completed 17-of-33 passes for 312 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Greg McCrae (188 rushing yards on 16 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground game in the win while Tre Nixon (four receptions, 39 yards) and Killins Jr. (three catches, 55 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
Navy has run the ball on 85.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while UCF has a rush percentage of 57.5 percent. The Midshipmen have run for 287 yards/game (including 270 per game against American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 27 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Knights are totaling 268 rush yards per game (270 in conference) and have 26 total rushing TDs.
If 2018 results are any indication, then the Knights might have the advantage when it comes to efficiency in the ground game, since their backfield has logged 6.0 yards per carry while their defense has allowed a YPC of 4.2 to opponents. The Midshipmen have ran for 4.9 yards per carry while allowing 5.4 YPC to opponents.
The Midshipmen offensive scheme has averaged 72 yards in the air overall (63 per game against conference opposition) and has three passing TDs so far. The Knights have recorded 281 pass yards per outing (272.0 in the AAC) and have 20 total pass scores.
Defensively, Navy has allowed 186 rush yards and 255 pass yards per game. The UCF defense has allowed 241.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 188.3 yards per game on the ground. The Knights are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.03 to opposing QBs, while the Midshipmen have given up an 8.15 ANY/A.
Offensively, Lewis is up to 398 passing yards on the year. The signal-caller has connected on 28-of-61 attempts with two passing scores and two interceptions. Lewis has a 4.88 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 0.25 over the past two games.
Look for a balanced approach offensively from Navy in this one. Malcolm Perry, Tazh Maloy and Zach Abey have combined to account for 294 total yards and two touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
For the home team, McKenzie Milton has connected on 136-of-233 passes for 2,109 yards, 19 TDs and five INTs. Milton’s ANY/A stands at 9.31 for the season and 9.91 over his past two games.
We’re expecting the Knights to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Darriel Mack Jr. (zero receiving yards this season) has contributed lately, but Greg McCrae (473 rush yards, two rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Adrian Killins Jr. (419 rush yards, four rush TDs, 244 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have been focal points in the Knights’ recent offensive strategies.
These two programs faced off last year with the final outcome being a 31-21 victory for UCF.
NCAA Prediction: Navy Midshipmen at UCF Knights
SU Winner – UCF, ATS Winner – Navy, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The UCF D has notched twice as many sacks as Navy this season (16 to eight).
UCF has lost one fumble this season while Navy has lost eight.
The Midshipmen offense has produced three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Knights have accounted for six such plays.
The Navy defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40+ yards, while UCF has given up three such plays.
The Navy offense has created 20 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while UCF has created 21 such runs.
The Midshipmen defense has allowed 16 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Knights have given up 11 such runs.
The Over/Under for UCF’s last matchup was set at 60. The over cashed in the team’s 52-40 win over Temple.
In its last three games, UCF is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Over its last three matches, Navy is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Navy’s last game was set at 47. The under cashed in the team’s 42-0 loss to Cincinnati.
Navy has averaged 4.5 yards per rush attempt across its past three games and 4.2 over its last two.
UCF has averaged 5.9 yards per carry over its last three outings and 6.5 over its last two.
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