The Troy Trojans and Liberty Flames are set to go at it on the turf at Williams Stadium. ESPN 3 will broadcast the action and the daytime game is scheduled to kick off at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Troy Trojans vs. Liberty Flames Betting Preview
The profitable Trojans have gained 5.2 units so far and are 4-1-1 against the spread (ATS). The team’s recorded an O/U mark of 5-1. The Flames have gained 0.5 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-3 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-2.
The Trojans have gone 5-1 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Flames are 2-3 SU.
The Trojans are coming off a resounding 37-20 victory over Georgia State last week where the Trojans completed 19-of-25 passes for 217 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Sawyer Smith went 10-for-15 for 81 yards, one touchdown and one interception while Kaleb Barker completed nine-of-10 for 136 yards and two touchdowns. B.J. Smith (140 rushing yards on 17 attempts, two TDs) led the ground attack while Tray Eafford (five receptions, 69 yards, one TD) and Deondre Douglas (five catches, 27 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Liberty just suffered a 49-41 defeat to New Mexico State. Stephen Calvert completed 31-of-54 passes for 365 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Frankie Hickson (155 yards on 24 rush attempts, one TD) and Peytton Pickett (23 yards on 10 carries, one TD) handled the running game while DJ Stubbs (11 receptions, 115 yards) and Antonio Gandy-Golden (seven catches, 115 yards, one TD) led the receiving corps in the loss.
Troy’s run the ball on 56.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Liberty has a rush percentage of 46.8 percent. The Trojans have rushed for 220 yards per game and have 13 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Flames are averaging 145 rush yards per game and have 11 total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Trojans should have the advantage when it comes to RB effectiveness. Their backfield has generated 5.9 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.5 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Flames have ran for 3.8 yards per carry and given up 5.8 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Trojans offense has logged 214 yards per contest through the air overall and has 14 passing TDs so far. The Flames have produced a superb 344 pass yards per game and have 12 total pass scores.
Defensively, Troy has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 138 yards and throw for 239 yards per game. The Liberty D has allowed 237.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 261.2 yards per game to opposing runners. The Trojans are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.82 to opposing QBs, while the Flames have given up a 7.20 ANY/A.
Offensively, Barker has amassed 870 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 72 percent of his 111 attempts with nine passing scores and only two interceptions. Barker’s got a 7.21 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 11.96 over the last two games.
We’re looking for Trojans to maintain tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. The tagteam of B.J. Smith (370 rush yards, six rush TDs) and Jabir Daughtry-Frye (167 rush yards, one rush TD, 87 receiving yards) have really been focal points in the offensive scheme for Troy.
Stephen Calvert has completed 91-of-166 passes for 1,239 yards, nine TDs and three INTs for Liberty. His ANY/A stands at 6.88 for the year and 7.41 over his past two outings.
The Flames will also try to dictate the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to Antonio Gandy-Golden (252 receiving yards, four receiving TDs), Frankie Hickson (276 rush yards, one rush TD) and B.J. Farrow (zero rush yards, 172 receiving yards, two TDs) have seen a lot of touches recently.
RELATED: Week 7 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Betting Pick: Troy Trojans vs. Liberty Flames
SU Winner – Troy
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Notes
Betting Trends
Troy has averaged 7.36893203883495 yards per carry over its last three outings and 9.1 over its last two.
Liberty has averaged 2.9 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.0 over its last two.
Liberty has lost four fumbles this season while Troy has lost five.
The Trojans offense has registered three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Flames have put up six such plays.
The Troy defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Liberty has given up six such plays.
The Troy offense has created 17 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Liberty has created seven such runs.
The Trojans defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Flames have given up 12 such runs.
The Troy defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 20 times this season. Liberty has registered just five sacks.
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