The Liberty Flames (+7) will clash with the New Mexico Lobos (-7) at Dreamstyle Stadium. The game is scheduled to get underway at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Liberty Flames vs. New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview
In this Saturday game, New Mexico is tabbed as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 7 points. The Flames are also receiving +210 moneyline odds while the Lobos are -270. Should one team finds paydirt early, it would probably produce a worthwhile live betting opportunity.
The public has been hammering the Flames. This game’s line opened at -9.
The Flames are 1-2 against the spread (ATS) and are down 0.2 units so far. The team has posted an O/U mark of 1-2. The Lobos have gained 1.0 unit this season. The team is 2-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-0.
The Flames have gone 1-2 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Lobos are 2-1 SU.
The Flames will attempt to get back on track after a 47-7 loss to North Texas last week. Stephen Calvert completed just 16-of-39 passes for 222 yards, as well as one score and a pick. Frankie Hickson (96 rushing yards on 21 attempts) led the ground attack while DJ Stubbs (six receptions, 95 yards) and Antonio Gandy-Golden (five catches, 51 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
New Mexico is coming off of a 42-25 win over New Mexico State two weeks ago. Sheriron Jones completed 12-of-19 passes for 127 yards and one interception. Tyrone Owens (110 yards on 30 rush attempts, one TD) and Ahmari Davis (74 yards on 21 carries, four TDs) mounted the running game while Elijah Lilly (four receptions, 53 yards) and Anselem Umeh (two catches, 28 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
Liberty’s run the ball on 47.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New Mexico has a rush percentage of 69.9 percent. The Flames have produced 157 rush yards per game and have three scores on the ground this year. The Lobos are averaging 198 rush yards per game and have nine total rushing TDs.
If 2018 results can translate to this game, then it appears the Lobos could hold an edge in the trenches, since their offensive line has allowed just four sacks while their D-line has logged seven sacks. The Flames offensive line has given up five sacks and their defense has got to opposing signal-callerss on just two occasions.
The Flames offense has averaged 294 yards through the air overall and has seven passing scores so far. The Lobos have recorded 207 pass yards per outing and also have seven total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, Liberty should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 308 rush yards and 139 pass yards per game. The New Mexico D has allowed 240.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 260.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Lobos are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.49 to opposing QBs, while the Flames have given up a 6.56 ANY/A.
Offensively, Calvert is up to 567 passing yards this year, and has connected on 41-of-75 attempts with five passing scores and only one interception. He’s got a 7.68 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.69 over the past two games.
Damian King (31 receiving yards on the year), Kentory Matthews (140 rush yards, one rush TD) and DJ Stubbs (250 receiving yards, one TD) have each played significant roles of late.
Sheriron Jones has completed 13-of-22 passes for 149 yards, one TD and one INT for New Mexico. His ANY/A sits at a very poor 3.96 for the season and 1.62 over his last two outings.
We’re expecting the Lobos to control tempo by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Elijah Lilly (114 receiving yards, one TD this season) has contributed lately, but Tyrone Owens (168 rush yards, three rush TDs) and Ahmari Davis (113 rush yards, four rush TDs) have been significant focal points in the New Mexico offense.
Betting Pick: Liberty Flames at New Mexico Lobos
SU Winner – New Mexico, ATS Winner – New Mexico
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Notes
Betting Trends
Liberty has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its past two outings.
New Mexico has averaged 3.0 yards per carry over its last two.
Both teams have lost three fumbles this year.
The Flames offense has created two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Lobos have put up four such plays.
The Liberty defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while New Mexico has given up four such plays.
Both defenses have produced three rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Liberty offense has recorded 16 running plays of 10+ yards while New Mexico has accounted for 18 such plays.
The Flames defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Lobos have given up four such runs.
The New Mexico defensive unit has produced seven sacks on the year while Liberty has two.
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