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NCAA Football Free Pick: Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Virginia Tech Hokies

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

The No. 24 Virginia Tech Hokies are getting 5.5 points as they prepare to welcome the No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish to Lane Stadium/Worsham Field. The game is scheduled to commence at 8:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to ABC.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Virginia Tech Hokies Betting Preview

Virginia Tech is a live dog and is currently getting 5.5 points in this game. The Fighting Irish are also receiving -235 moneyline odds while the Hokies are +185. Should one team can create a bunch of points in the early stages it’ll create a nice betting scenario in-game. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 54 points.

Square bettors have been hammering the Fighting Irish. The line opened at 4.5 and the game’s over/under hasn’t moved after it was initially placed at 54.

Both of these teams have been profitable this year as the Fighting Irish have gained 4.3 units while the Hokies are up 4.7 units.

The Fighting Irish are 5-0 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Hokies are 3-1 SU.

The Irish are looking to remain unbeaten after a 38-17 victory over Stanford last week where Ian Book completed 24 passes on 33 attempts for 278 yards and four touchdowns. Dexter Williams (161 yards on 21 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Book (47 yards on 15 carries) spearheaded the running attack in the win. Miles Boykin (11 receptions, 144 yards, one TD) and Chase Claypool (three catches, 23 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.

Virginia Tech just picked up a 31-14 win over Duke. The defensive secondary allowed the Blue Devils to air it out for 256 yards. Deon Jackson was a bright spot in the defeat, recording a rushing TD to go along with 34 yards and a score on three catches for Duke. For Virginia Tech, Ryan Willis completed 17-of-27 passes for 332 yards and three touchdowns. Steven Peoples (47 yards on 16 rush attempts, one TD) and Deshawn McClease (27 yards on 10 carries) mounted the ground game in the win while Damon Hazelton (four receptions, 65 yards, one TD) and Eric Kumah (three catches, 67 yards) led the pass-catching attack.

Breaking down the offensive play-calling, each squad sports a remarkably similar (61-39) run-pass ratio on the season. The Fighting Irish have rushed for 201 yards per game and have 13 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Hokies are logging 204 rush yards per game and have 10 total rushing TDs.

If 2018 numbers can translate to this game, then it seems like the Hokies ought to hold an edge in terms of efficiency in the ground game, since their backfield has produced 4.6 yards per carry while their defense has allowed a YPC of 2.6 to opponents. The Fighting Irish have rushed for 4.4 yards per carry while allowing 3.3 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Irish offense has logged 241 yards/game in the air overall and has eight passing scores so far. The Hokies have recorded 276 pass yards per game and have nine total pass TDs.

Defensively, Notre Dame should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has let opponents run for an average of 127 yards and pass for 214 yards per game. The Virginia Tech defense has given up 304.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 84.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Irish are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.83 to opposing QBs, while the Hokies have given up a 6.50 ANY/A.

Offensively, Book has put up 291 passing yards this year, and has connected on 27-of-36 attempts with five passing scores and has yet to throw an interception. He’s got a 10.32 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 10.29 over the last two outings.

Ryan Willis has completed 21-of-34 passes for 396 yards, three TDs and zero INTs for Virginia Tech. His ANY/A sits at 12.74 for the season and 11.28 across his past two games.

RELATED: Week 6 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions

Betting Prediction: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Virginia Tech Hokies

SU Winner – Virginia Tech, ATS Winner – Virginia Tech, O/U – Under

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Notes

Team Betting Trends

Each team has lost one fumble this season.

The Notre Dame defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 13 times this year. Virginia Tech has recorded 12 sacks.

Notre Dame has averaged 5.3006993006993 yards per rush attempt over its last three outings and 5.4 over its last two.

Virginia Tech has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.4 over its past two.

In its last three contests, Virginia Tech is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

Notre Dame was favored by 5 points in its previous game and the O/U was 54.5. The over cashed and Notre Dame covered in the 38-17 win over Stanford.

Over its last three matchups, Notre Dame is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

Virginia Tech was favored by 7 points in its last match and the Over/Under was set at 52. The under cashed and Virginia Tech covered in the 31-14 victory over Duke.

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Written by GMS Previews

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