The No. 23 Utah Utes (-10) are heading west to face the UCLA Bruins at Rose Bowl. Kickoff is pretty late for fans on the East Coast (10:30 p.m. ET) and fans can catch it live by tuning in to ESPN. When the two schools met a year ago, Utah won soundly 48-17.
Utah Utes vs. UCLA Bruins Betting Preview
In this Friday Pac-12 game, Utah is projected as the big favorite and is currently giving up 10 points. In order to take the favorite, moneyline bettors would currently need to wager $400 to win $100 back on the Utes (-400). The Bruins are getting +300 moneyline odds. If one side gets out in front in the early stages it will generate a nice in-game betting scenario. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 56. With the Bruins currently getting 10 points, Vegas thinks this has the look of a 23-33 win for the Utes.
With the line opening at 10.5 and the over/under originally placed at 55.5, oddsmakers have shifted this game’s outlook a little.
The Utes are 4-3 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 2.5 units so far in 2018. The team has posted an O/U record of 3-3. The Bruins have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 6.2 units. The team is 3-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-4.
The Utes are 5-2 straight up (SU), including 3-2 SU against conference opponents. The Bruins are 2-5 SU overall and are also 2-2 SU in conference play.
The Utes are coming off a resounding 41-28 win over USC last week. The D did its part in the win, limiting the Trojans to just 132 passing yards and 73 yards on the ground. Michael Pittman Jr. had a good day for the Trojans in that one with 107 yards and a score on four catches. On the offense, Tyler Huntley completed 22 passes on 29 attempts for 341 yards and four touchdowns. Zack Moss (136 yards on 25 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Huntley (33 yards on 16 carries, one TD) mounted the ground attack. Samson Nacua (five receptions, 55 yards) and Brant Kuithe (four catches, 68 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
UCLA enters this one having just earned a 31-30 win over Arizona. The defense allowed the Wildcats to run for 289 yards on 38 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. J.J. Taylor was on a different level for Arizona, putting up 154 rushing yards and a score on 19 attempts. As a group, the Bruins collectively completed 22-of-35 passes for 307 yards and three touchdowns. Wilton Speight went 17-for-27 for 204 yards and two touchdowns while Dorian Thompson-Robinson was five-of-eight for 103 yards and one touchdown. Joshua Kelley (136 rushing yards on 31 attempts, one TD) handled the running game while Caleb Wilson (six receptions, 82 yards) and Kelley (four catches, 43 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.
Utah’s run the ball on 58.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while UCLA has an overall rush percentage of 56.2 percent. The Utes have run for 188 yards/game (including 196 per game versus Pac-12 opponents) and have 12 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Bruins are averaging 150 rushing yards per game (165 in conference) and have 10 total rush TDs.
Based on the numbers this season, it seems like the Utes could own the advantage in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has produced 4.5 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 2.4 to opponents. The Bruins have recorded 3.9 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 4.3 to opponents.
The Utes offense has logged 238 yards per game in the air overall (212 per game versus conference opposition) and has 12 passing scores so far. The Bruins have recorded 204 pass yards per game (214.5 against Pac-12 competition) and have eight total pass TDs.
Utah appears to have the upper hand in both defensive facets. The team’s let opponents run for an average of 75 yards and throw for 212 yards per game. The UCLA D has given up 232.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 192.7 yards per game on the ground. The Utes are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.47 to opposing QBs, while the Bruins have allowed a 6.20 ANY/A.
Offensively, Huntley has put up 1,361 passing yards on the year. The signal-caller has completed 65 percent of his 179 attempts with nine scores through the air and only two interceptions. Huntley has a 6.77 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 10.93 over the past two outings.
We expect the Utah offense to mix it up in this one. As a group, Zack Moss, Tyler Huntley and Britain Covey have combined for 510 total yards and five touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson has managed to complete 90-of-156 passes for 1,035 yards, six TDs and three INTs for UCLA. His ANY/A sits at 5.40 for the season and 8.81 across his last two outings.
Similar to the Utes, expect a balanced approach offensively from UCLA this Friday. As a group, Joshua Kelley, Caleb Wilson and Theo Howard have combined for 625 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns over the last two outings.
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Notes
Betting Trends
The Utes offense has tallied eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bruins have accounted for five such plays.
The Utah defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while UCLA has given up six such plays.
The Utah offense has created 14 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while UCLA has created seven such runs.
The Utes defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bruins have given up four such runs.
The Utah defensive unit has 20 sacks on the year while UCLA has just 11.
Utah has averaged 4.7 yards per carry across its past three contests and 4.4 over its last two.
UCLA has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 3.5 over its past two.
In its last three matchups, UCLA is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Utah’s last game was 48.5. The over cashed in the team’s 41-28 win over USC.
In its last three matchups, Utah is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for UCLA’s previous match going into it was 57. The over cashed in that 31-30 win over Arizona.
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