In a game between two schools ranked in the Top 22 overall nationally, the No. 5 Tigers of LSU (-7) are gearing up to welcome their SEC counterpart Mississippi State Bulldogs to Tiger Stadium. The game is scheduled to kick off at 7:00 p.m. ET and ESPN has the TV rights.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU Tigers Betting Preview
In this Saturday Southeastern matchup, LSU is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 7 points. The Bulldogs are also receiving +210 moneyline odds while the Tigers are -270. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 44.5 points. Some solid in-game betting opportunities may present themselves during the matchup.
The Bulldogs are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) and are down 4.7 units so far in 2018. They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an Over-Under mark of 1-4. The Tigers have been a pleasant surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 7.4 units. They’re 4-3 ATS and the over’s hit in five of their games.
The Bulldogs are 4-2 straight up (SU), including 1-2 SU against SEC opponents. The Tigers are 6-1 SU overall and 3-1 SU in conference play.
The Bulldogs are coming off a resounding 23-9 victory over Auburn on October 6. The Bulldogs D did its part in the win, holding the Tigers to just 214 passing yards and 90 rushing yards. Offensively, Nick Fitzgerald completed only nine-of-17 passes for 69 yards and one interception. Fitzgerald (195 rushing yards on 28 attempts, two TDs) also led the ground attack and was complemented by Kylin Hill (126 yards on 23 carries). Farrod Green (two receptions, 23 yards) and Justin Johnson (two catches, 10 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
LSU is coming off of a 36-16 win over Georgia. Joe Burrow completed 15-of-30 passes for 200 yards. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (145 rushing yards on 19 attempts) and Nick Brossette (64 yards on 16 carries, one TD) mounted the running game as Justin Jefferson (six receptions, 108 yards) and Terrace Marshall Jr. (two catches, 43 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.
When looking at offensive play-calling, each of these teams has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Mississippi State has run the ball on 60.0 percent of its offensive possessions while LSU has an overall rush percentage of 61.1. The Bulldogs have run for 241 yards/game (including 170 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have 15 scores on the ground this year. The Tigers are averaging 202 rushing yards per game (214 in conference) and have 18 total rush TDs.
The Bulldogs offense has logged 190 yards per game through the air overall (104 per game against conference opposition) and has nine passing scores so far. The Tigers have put up 202 pass yards per game (233.3 in the SEC) and have six total pass TDs.
Defensively, Mississippi State should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 115 rush yards and 174 pass yards per game. The LSU defense has given up 219.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 120.4 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Bulldogs have given up an ANY/A of 3.92 to opposing QBs, while the Tigers are yielding an ANY/A of 4.21.
Offensively, Fitzgerald is up to 611 passing yards on the year. He’s completed 52 percent of his 97 attempts with four passing scores and three interceptions. He’s got a 5.07 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 1.69 over the last two games.
For the home team, Joe Burrow has connected on 85-of-161 passes for 1,223 yards, six TDs and zero INTs. Burrow’s ANY/A sits at 7.49 for the season and 3.46 over his last two outings.
When these two programs met last year, Mississippi State knocked LSU off easily 37-7.
RELATED: Week 8 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Tip: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers
SU Winner – Mississippi State, ATS Winner – Mississippi State, O/U – Over
Click Here to Start Betting Today!
Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Mississippi State defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs 17 times this year. LSU has recorded 16 sacks.
LSU has lost four fumbles in 2018 while the Mississippi State offense has yet to lose any.
The Bulldogs offense has recorded three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Tigers have put up five such plays.
The Mississippi State defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 yards or more, while LSU has given up three such plays.
The Mississippi State offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while LSU has created nine such runs.
The Bulldogs defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Tigers have given up four such runs.
The O/U for LSU’s last matchup was set at 50. The over cashed in the team’s 36-16 victory over Georgia.
In its last three games, LSU is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
In its last three matches, Mississippi State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
The O/U for Mississippi State’s last game was 45. The under cashed in the team’s 23-9 victory over Auburn.
Mississippi State has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.1 over its last two.
LSU has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.9 over its last two.
+++++
