Two schools that like to deploy their running games, Coach Jason Candle and the Toledo Rockets (+6) will be taking the field against their conference counterpart Western Michigan Broncos (-6) at Waldo Stadium. ESPN2 will televise the action and this Thursday game is scheduled to start at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Toledo Rockets vs. Western Michigan Broncos Betting Preview
In this Thursday Mid-American matchup, Western Michigan has been tabbed as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 6 points. The Rockets are also receiving +190 moneyline odds while the Broncos are -240. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 66 points, and should one side can create a bunch of points early on, it will likely result in a reasonable live betting opportunity.
The sharp action has been siding with the Broncos, as the line opened at -4. The game’s total has yet to change after being initially set at 66.
The underwhelming Rockets are down 4.0 units this season and 2-5 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-2. The Broncos are up 4.0 units in 2018. The team is 3-5 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-4.
The Rockets have gone 3-4 straight up (SU), including 1-2 SU against conference opponents. The Broncos are 6-2 SU overall and 4-0 SU in conference play.
Toledo enters this matchup on a six-game winning streak while Western Michigan has come up short in each of its last two. The Rockets came up short to Buffalo 31-17 in a matchup where the defense allowed the Bulls to pass for 326 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 137 yards and two scores. K.J. Osborn had a good day for the Bulls in that one with 90 yards on seven catches. On the offense, Eli Peters completed only five passes on 17 attempts for 128 yards, along with one score and a pick. Shakif Seymour (74 rushing yards on 12 attempts) and Bryant Koback (81 yards on nine carries, one TD) led the ground attack in the loss while Diontae Johnson (two receptions, 97 yards, one TD) and Desmond Phillips (two catches, eight yards) handled the receiving duties.
The Western Michigan Broncos take the field this week having just earned a lopsided 35-10 win over Central Michigan. The defense let the Chippewas run for 147 yards on 44 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Romello Ross had a productive outing in the defeat, posting 69 rushing yards and a score on 11 attempts for Central Michigan. For Western Michigan, Jon Wassink completed five-of-nine passes for 51 yards. LeVante Bellamy (145 yards on 19 rush attempts, one TD) and Jamauri Bogan (96 yards on 19 carries, one TD) mounted the ground game in the win as D’Wayne Eskridge (two receptions, 5 yards) and Jayden Reed (one catch, 13 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
Each of these squads has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Toledo has run the ball on 60.1 percent of its offensive possessions while Western Michigan has a rush percentage of 58.2. The Rockets have produced 195 rush yards per game (including 225 per game against Mid-American opponents) and have 15 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Broncos are putting up 220 rush yards per game (214 in conference) and have 21 total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Broncos may have an advantage in terms of effectiveness in the ground game, as their running backs has generated 5.2 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 4.4 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Rockets have tallied 4.7 yards per carry while allowing 5.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Rockets offensive scheme has averaged 221 yards through the air overall (156 per game against conference opposition) and has 18 passing scores so far. The Broncos have produced 248 pass yards per contest (249.0 in the MAC) and have 16 total pass TDs.
Toledo has let opponents rush for an average of 195 yards and pass for 269 yards per game. The Western Michigan defense has allowed 210.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 168.8 yards per game on the ground. The Rockets are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.47 to opposing QBs, while the Broncos have given up a 7.19 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Guadagni is up to 766 yards this season. He’s completed 47-of-75 attempts with 10 passing scores and only two interceptions. Guadagni has a 9.68 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 1.32 over the last two games.
Look for a balanced attack offensively from Toledo in this one. Diontae Johnson (390 receiving yards, six receiving touchdowns on the year), Shakif Seymour (294 rush yards, two rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Mitchell Guadagni (244 rush yards, two rush TDs, 0 receiving yards) have each played significant roles of late.
For the home team, Jon Wassink has managed to complete 126-of-203 passes for 1,709 yards, 14 TDs and four INTs. Wassink’s ANY/A stands at 8.68 for the year and 5.79 over his past two outings.
We expect the Broncos to control tempo by feeding the ball-carriers early and often. Giovanni Ricci (192 receiving yards, two TDs this season) has contributed lately, but LeVante Bellamy (676 rush yards, five rush TDs, 73 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Jamauri Bogan (383 rush yards, five rush TDs) have brought significant production to the Broncos’ recent offensive gameplans.
When these two squads met last year, Toledo knocked off Western Michigan soundly 37-10.
RELATED: Week 9 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Tip: Toledo Rockets vs. Western Michigan Broncos
SU Winner – Western Michigan, ATS Winner – Western Michigan, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Rockets offense has created five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Broncos have accounted for seven such plays.
The Toledo defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Western Michigan has given up six such plays.
The Toledo offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Western Michigan has created 14 such runs.
The Rockets defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Broncos have given up 12 such runs.
The Western Michigan defensive unit has tallied 18 sacks on the year while Toledo has 13.
As a team, Toledo has averaged 5.4 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.8 over its last two.
Western Michigan has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.4 over its last two.
Over its last three matches, Western Michigan is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Toledo’s last game was set at 63. The under cashed in the team’s 31-17 loss to Buffalo.
In its last three games, Toledo is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Western Michigan’s previous match was 53.5. The under cashed in the team’s 35-10 victory over Central Michigan.
Toledo has lost four of its last five games SU, with a 16-point win over Bowling Green on October 6th accounting for the only victory over that stretch.
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