The Rhode Island Rams will battle the Oregon Ducks in the NCAA Tournament second round after both teams showed impressive basketball on Friday in Sacramento. Either team is well worthy a spot in Sweet 16, where they’ll match up against the winners of Michigan vs. Louisville game. Tough road ahead but neither Ducks nor Rams should look further than the next opponent.
Place: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California
Date/Time: Sunday March 19th, 2017. 07:10 PM ET
TV Coverage: TBS
#3 Oregon Ducks vs. #11 Rhode Island Rams
LINE: Oregon -5 (-104)
Total: 140 points (-105 over, -108 under)
Ducks advance into the 2nd round with ease and style
The Oregon Ducks (30-5) whipped the No. 14 Iona Gaels by playing efficient and unselfish basketball in the opening round. It was a parade of dunks and lay-ups as the Ducks enjoyed 18-0 scoring advantage on fast breaks and dominated the paint. The Ducks looked like a team that very much understands what needs to be done to overcome the loss of Chris Boucher who was cheering his teammates from the sideline due to recent ACL tear. Smallish Iona stayed in the game only until 29-26 in the first half and have did their best to trim the Ducks 27-point lead to 13, but just couldn’t cope with the athletic and confident Oregon players.
The Ducks were once again boosted by an offensive explosion of Tyler Dorsey, who scored season-high 24 points on 9-of-13 shooting. Dorsey is shooting 60 percent (33-of-55) from the floor in his last four games, as he scored above 20 points each time. Leading scorer Dillon Brooks added 18 points and 4 dimes. As a team, Oregon shot 35-of-63 (.556) from the field, outrebounded the Gaels 41-27 and had 8 steals. They had troubles containing Iona forward Jordan Washington and gave up 77 points, so Boucher’s absence was felt on the defensive side.
Rhode Island is much bigger team so the points in the paint won’t come as easily for the Ducks. They still need to attack the paint and not settle for the jumpers.
Don’t think of Rams as an average #11 seed
Remember when the Rhode Island Rams (25-9) were No. 23 in the AP preseason poll? This is a good team that has suffered from injuries during the season and they showed it on Friday, defeating Creighton 84-72. The games two halves were quite different. Rhode Island kept it at the preferred low scoring, slow paced ball in the first, but when Creighton kept pushing and scoring in the second, the Rams responded to give them no chance of coming back. In fact, Creighton never led. The Rams did it with a balanced effort, as each starter scored in double digits. Guard Jeff Downtin stood out with career-best 23 points. He and the Rams leading scorer E.C. Matthews shot 10-10 from the free-throw line each.
But the Rams strong suit is their defense, especially in containing the outside shot. Creighton shot only 7-of-23 from the deep, right at the Rams seasonal average of around 30%, 3rd best in college basketball. Hassan Martin and Kuran Iverson patrol the paint and the Ducks will have a tough time getting easy points in half court game.
#3 Oregon Ducks vs. #11 Rhode Island Rams Game Trends & Prediction
Oregon covered the spread in the last game, which also went over the projected total line, so they now stand at 20-14 ATS and 16-18 O/U. Both games without Boucher’s paint presence have gone to over and the Ducks conceded 83 and 77 points in them. To be fair, they played Arizona and Iona, two potent offensive teams, but over is also building a trend as it happened 5 times in the last 6 games.
The URI Rams have a similar record ATS, going 19-14 for the season and covering in 7 out of their last 8 games. They are also more of a public dark horse to pull an upset against the Ducks than they were against Creighton, but the value has shrunk. The line opened with Rhode Island a 5 point underdog, but some early action pushed the line down half a point. The odds came back, so it’s likely that the money will go in both directions. They’ve also improved their offense as of late and topped the projected points on four occasions in the last 5 games, and the only time the game didn’t go to over was by half a point.
I was very much looking to ride the Rams deep into the tournament as I immediately saw them underrated, but the opportunity quickly faded away. The Rams have their chances to beat the Ducks and progress, and I’ll take them at +5, but it’s not as great of a value as I hoped for. The total points line of 140 seems a bit too high for the Rams game, but it’s actually lower than it should be. Rhode Island can score on the Ducks, go to the free throw line and I believe that Oregon still has enough firepower to score. The value is too small for me, so I’ll skip it, but I do believe this game will continue the trend and go to over.
My Pick: Rhode Island +5 (+100)
Total: Pass / Over 140 points
