The Purdue Boilermakers take on the Vermont Catamounts, who enter the Tournament as the hottest team in the nation with 21 consecutive wins. In talent versus disciplined approach, both teams believe that they can advance. The game will take place at the BMO Harris Bradley Center in Milwaukee with the tip-off scheduled for 7:27 PM ET.
Place: BMO Harris Bradley Center, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Date/Time: Thursday March 16th, 2017. 07:27 PM ET
TV Coverage: truTV
#4 Purdue Boilermakers vs. #13 Vermont Catamounts
LINE: Purdue -10 (-105)
Total: 135 points (-105 over, -108 under)
The Purdue Boilermakers hope to win their first BIG DANCE game since 2012
The best team of the Big 10 Conference, Purdue Boilermakers (25-7) is enjoying the most talented group in years, led by a national player of the year candidate Caleb Swanigan. Yet, the Big 10 Conference is not exactly a power conference this year, and the Boilermakers two recent losses to Michigan have shown some of their defensive deficiencies. Despite all, the Boilermakers are entering the first round in hope to finally put an end to their NCAA winning drought that dates back to 2012. In their last two visits, the Boilermakers suffered two unlucky blows in the closing minutes after holding a solid advantage. This year, things should look different.
Very few teams can match Purdue’s front court. They play inside and feed off Swanigan, Edwards and Haas to open up the three-point shot. The Boilermakers rank fourth in the nation in 3PT percentage – an evidence of how focused opposing teams have to be on the inside. Defense can be spotty. They don’t force a lot of turnovers and are subpar in limiting opponents’ shooting percentage.
Caleb Swanigan is averaging double-double figures throughout the season with 18.5 points and 12.6 rebounds per game. In 32.3 minutes, Swanigan is also dishing out 2.8 assists. Isaac Haas is chipping in 12.8 points while also collecting 5.1 boards per game.
The Catamounts enter the Big Dance without any pressure
The America East champions found no opposition during their 21 game winning streak. The Vermont Catamounts (29-5) were perfect during their conference play. Clearly a better team than their rivals, it was up to them to lose a game, but they managed to keep their composure. Unlike their first round foe, Vermont is a highly disciplined team that likes to slow down games. They are also a very capable inside-out team that can hit outside shots, but will focus on the closer looks.
The Catamounts have hit 49.6 percent of their FG attempts, good enough for the ninth spot in the nation. Defensively, the Catamounts are allowing 61.6 points per game, albeit to the inferior competition and partially due to a crawling game pace. In addition, they are forcing their opponents to commit 13.0 turnovers per game. Coach Becker gives minutes to a lot of players, but there is a significant drop off in the quality after the first five exits the game. The good thing is, they don’t foul a lot, but it will take a lot of energy to block off the offensive talent of Purdue, so Becker needs to be careful with the rotation.
Anthony Lamb and Payton Hanson lead the team in scoring with 12.6 and 11.3 points per contest. The two also combine for 10.7 boards per game.
#4 Purdue Boilermakers vs. #13 Vermont Catamounts Game Trends & Prediction
Betting on Purdue produced more good than bad as they went 17-10-2 ATS for the season. Recently, they stopped beating the spread and they are not entering the Big Dance in stride. Against the over/under, the Boilermakers went 16-12-1, but the window for overs has also closed some time ago, as they went 4-6 in the last ten.
Betting opportunities on Vermont games were rare. They were heavily favored and went 4-4 ATS. Unders were unsurprisingly more frequent, 6 times in 8 matches.
The Vermont Catamounts are certainly worth their bid. The Catamounts play fine basketball, try to compete and know how to win, but Purdue is simply more talented and more versatile. If they maintain their focus on the defensive end, it’s unlikely that physically inferior Catamounts will manage to stop them. Some picked Vermont to be a bracket-breaker, but I’d go with the favorites to advance. There’s no value in playing them against the -10 handicap, and it’s unlikely that the line will significantly drop closer to the game, so just skip this one. The total of 135 point is intriguing due to Vermont’s plan for this game (and every game), but I simply can’t trust that they’ll lock down Purdue. Go with the under or take a look for another game to put your bets on.
My Pick: Pass/ Purdue -10
Total: Under 135 points (-108)
