It’s the #4 Purdue Boilermakers vs. #5 Iowa State Cyclones that will compete for the Sweet 16 spot in Kansas City, potentially to play against the Midwest No. 1 team in their lair. Neither team has experienced too much trouble with their first round opponents, winning with a double digit margin.
Place: BMO Harris Bradley Center, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Date/Time: Saturday March 18th, 2017. 09:50 PM ET
TV Coverage: TBS
#4 Purdue Boilermakers vs. #5 Iowa State Cyclones
LINE: Purdue -1 (-106);
Total: 151.5 points (-109 over, +104 under)
Swanigan proving his worth
The Purdue Boilermakers rode hot shooting (52 % from the field and 45 % from behind the arc) to an 80-70 win over Vermont on Thursday afternoon. They stopped a disappointing streak of bowing out in the first round the previous two years behind the dominant performance of their best player, Caleb Swanigan, who scored 16 points to go with 14 boards and 4 assists, drawing much attention in the post and opening up space for the lethal outside shooters. Vermont kept the game close in the first half but couldn’t respond once Vincent Edwards got hot, scoring 15 of his 21 points in the second half. The Boilermakers owned the paint with Swanigan and 7-foot-2 Isaac Haas, grabbing 38 rebounds to Catamounts 28 and outscoring their foes 42-24 in the paint.
The Boilermakers also cut down their turnovers in the second half, but were visibly disrupted by the opportunistic Catamounts’ defense that played the passing lane very well. Defensively, Purdue played a fair game, holding Vermont to 44.3% shooting and only 10 free throw attempts. Vermont also settled for too many shots from beyond the arc, helping the Boilermakers case.
Iowa State can’t match their inside game so Purdue will try to force them into the foul trouble, but Cyclones are more potent and better coached team than Vermont, so they need to step up defensively and try to contain their next rivals shooters.
Cyclones won’t adjust
The Iowa State Cyclones fought off the pesky Nevada, building a nice lead in the first half but allowing it to be trimmed in to just four points in the second half. However, the Wolf Pack couldn’t respond to a brilliant all-around performance of Monte Morris, who had 19 points, 8 rebounds and 8 assists for the evening. He had the usual good support from Deonte Burton, Naz Mitrou-Long and Matt Thomas. The Cyclones shot 55.6% from the field, hitting 8 off their 19 attempts from the deep and missing only 2 free throws.
They have played their game offensively, but also on the defensive end. While they are not known for their defense, the Cyclones play to their strengths, staying with the shooters and not doubling up in the post. Wolf Pack did cause them usual troubles on the inside, despite below average height of their forwards, but the Cyclones would not budge. The same thing happened over the course of the regular season – each time Iowa State faced a formidable post player, they focused on the others, letting the bigs get their points but shutting down the rest of the team. This won’t change against the similarly built Purdue, but they’ll need to account for Swanigan’s and Edwards’ outside shooting touch as well. The Cyclones will look to speed up the game and shoot well to beat the Boilermakers.
#4 Purdue Boilermakers vs. #5 Iowa State Cyclones Game Trends & Prediction
Purdue is 18-10-2 ATS for the season after the narrow ATS win in the last game. Against the over/under, the Boilermakers are 17-12-1, with the second consecutive over and fourth in five games.
The Iowa State Cyclones have covered the spread in 9 of their last 11 games, propelling their season record to 19-12. They’ve gone the same way against the O/U, beating the projected line 10 consecutive times.
The line shows that the two teams are pretty evenly matched in terms of the overall talent, despite the fact that they don’t have similar styles. The Cyclones don’t press, but stay mostly on the man-to-man defense, and I believe this suits Purdue, but the Boilermakers will have to play their best defense to stop Iowa State from scoring. With Morris playing his best ball at the right time, I can’t see this happening and this looks like a game of who scores more. In this set up, I like the Cyclones and the over points.
My Pick: Iowa State +1
Total: Over 151.5 points
