You can’t draw much worse as a sixth seed than the Creighton Bluejays who will have to face a stifling defense of the #11 Rhode Island Rams in the opening round of this year’s NCAA Tournament. Contrasting styles are always presenting a challenge for both sides and this will be one of the most interesting games to watch, but also one of the hardest to handicap.
Place: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California
Date/Time: Friday March 17th, 2017. 04:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: TBS
#6 Creighton Bluejays vs. #11 Rhode Island Rams
LINE: pick-em (-106 -106)
Total: 141.5 (-108o -108u)
Bluejays one of the country’s top offenses
The Creighton Bluejays (25-9) have been a mainstay in the NCAA tourney, and will benefit from playing strong opposition during the season. Bluejays were third in the Big East and progressed to the championship game where they lost to the Villanova Wildcats with 60-74. However, since losing their starting point guard Maurice Watson Jr. in mid-January to a torn ACL, the Bluejays have a losing record (7-8) beating mostly weak teams.
Creighton finished the season with elite offensive numbers, ranking 3rd in FG% (.508), 16th in 3PT% (.400) and 19th in scoring (82.1 ppg). The eye-test also shows high quality. The Bluejays move the ball around smoothly, have an excellent shot selection and attack from all angles. Marcus Foster leads them in attempts and points with 18.3 per game but whole team can contribute. Defensively, the Bluejays leave a lot to be desired. Opponents score on them on a .437 clip and they foul a lot, a sign of lack of focus in the defensive assignments. For the season, the Bluejays allowed 72.5 points per game. Bluejays could also put the ball inside the paint and play more through the talented center Justin Patton, who is going to be a tough cover due to his size.
The Bluejays should know a thing or two about the Rams, even though they have last played in 2008, as Bluejays’ assistant coach Preston Murphy held the same position with the Rams from 2010-14 and helped recruit multiple current Rams’ players, including E.C. Matthews, the leading scorer for the Rams.
The Rams are one of the teams that are hard to score on
The Rhode Island Rams (24-9) are riding a hot streak of 8 consecutive wins towards the end of the season, including the win over VCU for the A10 title. They owe their success to a stellar and unorthodox defense that can throw most teams off of their game.
The Rams protect the three point line with poise, running at the shooters and forcing them to drive directly to an elite shot blocking of Hassan Martin and Kuran Iverson. They are 3rd in nation in total blocks while allowing 2nd best .290 three point shooting percentage to their opposition, so it’s no surprise that their rivals aren’t sure how to attack them.
Their troubles come on the offensive end, as they are a poor shooting team from behind the arc and the charity line. They score 73.4 points per game, mostly going to Martin on the inside and playing off of him.
#6 Creighton Bluejays vs. #11 Rhode Island Rams Game Trends & Prediction
The Creighton Bluejays were good against the spread this season with a 19-13 record, while holding a 13-15 against the O/U. Considering the straight up wins, they haven’t been able to play up to the expectations since Watson’s injury, covering only twice in the last 7 games and topping the project total points line just once.
The Rams went 18-14 ATS, and most of those wins came during the recent streak, when they went 6-2 ATS. The only time they have failed to cover in the last 7 games was the overtime game versus Davidson. The Rams have been favored in their last 11 games. The O/U hasn’t had much value either way – they went 14-15 for the season and 5-5 in the last 10. Most of their total lines have been in mid 130s.
Forget about the seeding here, the teams are equally matched in terms of quality. I’m going with the Rams hot streak and against the Bluejays struggles without they point guard, but this will be not an easy contest. In fact, eleven of Creighton’s last 14 postseason runs (all but 2010, 2014 and 2016) have included a game that was decided in the final seconds. As for the total, I believe it’s well set and wouldn’t touch it.
My Pick: Rhode Island pk
Total: Pass
