Just looking at the RPI, the first round matchup between the #8 Miami Hurricanes and the #9 Michigan State Spartans is a game not to be missed. Both teams are looking to save their somewhat disappointing seasons with a strong run at the NCAA Tournament, and the winner of this game will be presented an opportunity to test themselves against the number one seed Kansas Jayhawks.
Place: Bank of Oklahoma Center, Tulsa, Oklahoma
Date/Time: Friday March 17th, 2017. 9:20 PM ET
TV Coverage: TNT
#8 Miami Hurricanes vs. #9 Michigan State Spartans
LINE: Miami -2 (-110); moneyline -135
Total: 125.5 points (-108o, -108u)
The Hurricanes focus on stopping easy baskets in transition
The Miami Hurricanes (21-11) finished 7th in the ACC and bowed out in conference quarterfinals to North Carolina 53-78. They have thus coming to Tulsa with only one win in the last four games. Coach Larranaga is trying to lift the spirits of his players as they prepare for the tourney by reminding them how much adversity they have overcome to get here. They made it by staying afloat in the tough ACC, the conference that landed nine teams in the brackets, with a few worthy left out.
Despite the recent disappointments, the Miami Hurricanes have proven that they can compete with top teams, beating North Carolina, Duke and Virginia. They did it with an athletic group of players that plays tough defense. The Hurricanes allowed only 63.7 points per game on .414 shooting. They like their chances against the Spartans and will try to prevent their opponent from scoring in easy points in transition, making them play set plays, as the Hurricanes half court defense is very hard to break. The offense is not on par with a mere 69.4 points per game. Most of their points come from the talented backcourt of Davon Reed, Ja’Quan Newton and Bruce Brown, who score 40 points a game combined.
Young Spartans hope that the best is ahead
The Michigan State Spartans (19-14) made the Big Dance for the 20th straight season despite having one of the least-experienced teams in recent years. This Spartans are far from what we are used to from teams under coach Izzo, as the Spartans failed to replicate what has become a standard in recent years – win games when it matters the most. They are also limping into the postseason having lost their last two conference games to inferior opponents and an ugly performance against Minnesota in the Big Ten tournament.
Three of the Spartans’ top four scorers are freshmen, led by Miles Bridges (16.7 ppg, 8.3 rpg) and Nick Ward (13.7 ppg, 6.5 rpg). They are not a good team offensively either, scoring only 71.7 points per game as a team, but they do shoot decent percentages from the field. The Spartans suffer from bad free throw shooting and a high turnover rate. Michigan States strength lies on the defensive end, where they’ve forced opponents into tough shots from the field (.407), holding them to an average of 68.4 points per game.
#8 Miami Hurricanes vs. #9 Michigan State Spartans Game Trends & Prediction
Miami is 11-19 ATS, underperforming compared to expectations despite the few flashes. They are also a big time under team with a 9-18 score against the over/under. Their last 6 games have gone to under, one even with the overtime.
Michigan State fared better, going 17-15 against the spread, yet mostly due to good home score of 10-5 ATS. They went 15-14 against the O/U with no significant recent trends.
The line opened at -1, but the early money went on the Hurricanes’ side. I’m pleased with it, as I rate this encounter as a pick-em situation. This rates to be a close, low-scoring game that will be decided by a few balls. Team that figures how to score in the last couple of minutes will prevail, and in this situation, I’d rather go with points. Miami hasn’t fared well in ten games as a small favorite, so I’m picking the Spartans both +2 and moneyline. The line is very low and holds no value for under, so I’m recommending skipping the total points wager.
My Pick: Michigan State +2 and ml
Total: Pass
