The UCLA Bruins and the Cincinnati Bearcats will square off in Sacramento on Sunday evening for a spot in the Sweet 16 after cruising through the first round matchups. This will be a game between teams with very different styles, as the Bruins like the free flowing, high scoring ball while the Bearcats will scratch and bite trying to overpower their opponents.
Place: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California
Date/Time: Sunday March 19th, 2017. 09:40 PM ET
TV Coverage: TBS
#3 UCLA Bruins vs. #6 Cincinnati Bearcats
LINE: UCLA -3.5 (-116); moneyline -164
Total: 153.5 points (-105 over, -105 under)
High powered offense lifts Bruins pass Kent State
UCLA (30-4) quickly opened up a big lead against the Kent State Golden Flashes and entertained the national audience with baskets from all positions. Kent State was obviously mentally unprepared for the big stage but once they settled in, they’ve managed to score on the Bruins with relative ease, like the most teams do. UCLA could care less as they shot 62.7% from the field, hitting half of their shots beyond the arc and had 25 assists for 97 points. TJ Leaf paced the Bruins with 23 points and 6 boards and five UCLA players scored 14 points or more. Aaron Holiday had 11 dimes off the bench, more than the entire Kent St. team. The Bruins did get a little scare when one of the best players in the NCAA, Lonzo Ball went down with an injury, but he turned out to be ok and return to finish the game.
UCLA game plan is no secret to anybody. They’ll run as much as they can, take shots in transition and move without the ball. The nation’s top offense scores 90.5 point on average, shooting 52 percent from the field. They allow a lot of points too, 75.4 per game, but are confident that can go deep with scoring more than their opponents and not allowing fewer. Their path to the Final Four is far from easy, so it was good to have a nice run-out in their first game. Against the Bearcats, they’ll need to stay consistent and not allow too many consecutive attacks without scoring. Playing some D would help as well.
The Bearcats high percentage shooting prevails against K-State
The Cincinnati Bearcats led 39 minutes against the Kansas State, comfortably winning the first round matchup 75-61. Winning by 14 points may not seem as impressive as some other results from the first round, but the Bearcats are very tough to score upon and when they open up a double digit leads, few teams can come back. And they did something they are not exactly known for – the Bearcats shot 62% from the field. Troy Caupain and Kyle Washington had a busy day, scoring 23 and 16 respectively.
The defense was typical. Knowing that the Kansas State had three dangerous deep shooters, the Bearcats extended their D while keeping Wildcats ball handlers in front of them. As they always do, Cincy made their opponent work hard for everything. They played from the jump as if it knew it would win. They need to bring the same attitude against the Bruins despite the national consensus that UCLA is a better team.
#3 UCLA Bruins vs. #6 Cincinnati Bearcats Game Trends & Prediction
The UCLA Bruins are 16-18 ATS as they are usually to require beating a large spread. They are also 16-16-2 against the over/under, with the last two going over the projected line. Previously, UCLA has stringed 5 unders.
While the Bruins total points lines are rarely as low as 153 points (projected for this game), Cincy games usually feature lines in 130s or lower. The Bearcats have topped the total on 4 out of 5 previous occasions (1 push) and are now 16-15-1 against the O/U for the season. They’ve also covered the spread with regularity since the beginning of the month, going 5-1 and have the ATS record of 17-14-1.
It’s almost a cliché to say that the teams will try to force the game played at their style – doesn’t each team always do that? – but the Bruins and the Bearcats concepts differ so much that something’s got to give. The Bearcats won’t stop UCLA from scoring, despite the defense to be proud of, but will limit them. On the other side, the Bruins haven’t shown enough dedication to stop any team, let alone one who also won 30 games this season, so it’s ought to be an interesting and close game. The bookmakers have realized that and set the opening line as close as they possible could, knowing that the public will jump on the UCLA. That is exactly what’s happening, so I’m holding hope that Cincinnati will become available at my minimum price of +5 +100. If this doesn’t happen, I’ll be happy to take only the over points.
My Pick: (Cincinnati +5 at +100)
Total: Over 153.5 points
