Two top ranked teams in the South region are the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Kentucky Wildcats and they will go head-to-head on Sunday afternoon at the FedEx Forum in Memphis. The two schools have already played this season and produced a thrilling show. This time the stakes are higher as the winners will progress to the Final Four.
Place: FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tennessee
Date/Time: Sunday March 26th, 2017. 05:05 PM ET
TV Coverage: CBS
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. #2 Kentucky Wildcats
LINE: North Carolina -2.5 (-103)
Total: 158.5 points (-108 over, -105 under)
Silky Tar Heels offense no match for Butler
North Carolina (30-7) played well and won against Butler, 92-80. It was a good game by the Tar Heels from start to finish. It was played to their liking, the ball moved around fluidly before finding its way through the rim. The decisive minutes of the game happened in the first half, when Butler couldn’t keep matching the Tar Heels points production and 13-12 lead grew to 27-12 within five minutes. The Bulldogs kept pushing for a comeback, but UNC would not relinquish the double digits lead. Once the Tar Heels get into their rhythm, they are very hard to stop.
Joel Berry and Justin Jackson stood out with 26 and 24 points respectively and Luke Maye was great of the bench with 16 points and 12 boards. UNC shot 54.4 percent from the field and also managed to get 10 of their 26 misses. They could do better from the free throw line, where all but one player who shot free throws missed at least one. For the season, the Tar Heels score 84.7 points per game on 47 percent shooting. Their defense is solid with 70.8 points per game allowed, on 41.7 percent shooting. Butler was only slightly better than the average with 43.5% and 80 points, but it was not enough for the North Carolina.
Kentucky slow down UCLA to win
While freshman guard De’Aaron Fox grabbed the spotlight with his 39 points output, it was an excellent preparation and defensive execution that has won the game for the Kentucky Wildcats (32-5) against the UCLA Bruins. The Wildcats were able to throw the nation’s top scoring team off by slowing the tempo of the game in the first half. It stayed close, but when Monk and Fox started hitting in the second half, they’ve managed to match and overcome the Bruins output, gradually increasing the lead.
It was a career night for the young Fox as Calipari put the ball in his hand. Fox took 20 shots and 15 free throws (out of the team’s 63 and 17) and scored 39 points. He was clearly energized to prove his worth on the big stage and it translated to a strong game. The Bruins couldn’t stop his penetration. Defensively, they did a fair job staying with the shooters and not allowing too many easy opportunities. Despite 17 fouls for the game, UK has put UCLA on the line only 13 times. They’ve been able to guard Ball and Leaf just enough not to take over the game. Kentucky is a solid team when it comes to the defense. They allow 71.4 points per game on 42.3%. Not an elite numbers, but proved able to play it at a level that gives their offense a chance each night, and that was exactly what has separated them from the UCLA Bruins.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. #2 Kentucky Wildcats Game Trends & Prediction
The North Carolina Tar Heels are 19-15-2 ATS overall, with no significant recent trends. The Tar Heels also went 14-20-1 against the over/under, but three of the last four games ended in overs.
Kentucky covered in the last game, not a regular occurrence recently, but has also won 8 last games. They’ve also beaten North Carolina in their December meeting, 103-100. Nine of the Wildcats ten games have ended in unders, so they have an O/U record of 17-20. Kentucky is 19-17-1 ATS this season.
North Carolina is slightly favored to win it, holding a -2.5/-3 handicap. Most of it is books due to try to balance the bets – and those wouldn’t be balanced if the region’s top seed would be an underdog. I’m giving them close to 50-50 chance to win the game, so I’ll take the added value on the Wildcats. The total points line is set at 158.5, well below the December’s game line. Of course, the playoffs bring a different attitude, but even if I adjust for importance, it’s still too low. I’m picking overs and I expect both teams to score at least 80 points.
My Pick: Kentucky +2.5
Total: Over 158.5 points
