Top seeded North Carolina Tar Heels will play fourth seed Butler Bulldogs in the South Region’s semifinals on Friday in Memphis. Butler had a relatively easy path in the first two rounds and UNC had to navigate through feisty Arkansas team to set up this matchup.
Place: FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tennessee
Date/Time: Friday March 24th, 2017. 07:10 PM ET
TV Coverage: CBS
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. #4 Butler Bulldogs
LINE: North Carolina -7.5 (-102); moneyline -303
Total: 153 points (-105 over, -105 under)
North Carolina strong rebounding helps avoid an upset
North Carolina scored the first 8 and more importantly the final 12 points of the game to beat Arkansas 72-65 and keep their hopes alive. The Tar Heels eliminated the Razorbacks in the second round for the second time in three seasons, but had to play their best at the end of the game after falling back by 5 with three and a half minutes to go. This was not a performance UNC will try to remember. North Carolina committed 17 turnovers for the game and have seen their 17 point lead evaporate. Their defense was slow and confused. Fortunately for them, Arkansas showed cold feet when the upset was close, failing to score in the last 3:28.
The Tar Heels were able to carry over some momentum from their first round game. Justin Jackson and Joel Berry, who suited up despite turned ankle, led the way and controlled just about every facet of the game early on. Subsequently, UNC jumped out to a massive first-half lead. Arkansas clawed back by some strong outside shooting by the reserve guard Daryl Mason and finally settled in the game. In the second half, Razorbacks’ press defense really hurt UNC. They couldn’t get any good looks and repeatedly turned the ball over. Tar Heels survived by crashing the offensive glass and a couple of controversial referee decisions.
Normally out of the spotlights, Kennedy Meeks came up huge for North Carolina with 16 points and 11 boards, seven of them on the offensive end, along with three blocks. Justin Jackson shot poorly, but managed to contribute in other aspects. He finished with 15 points, eight rebounds, five assists and five steals. For the game, North Carolina shot only 38.1 percent from the field, and 5-of-17 from the deep, but grabbed 18 offensive rebounds to 24 Razorbacks defensive rebounds to make up for the bad shooting.
Butler withstands Blue Raiders late rally
The Butler Bulldogs (25-8) have looked like a team that could make a run in Memphis with a pair of wins over Winthrop and Middle Tennessee State. Yes, the opponents don’t have the flashy names some other Sweet 16 teams have beaten so far, so the true test lies ahead. But the Bulldogs have already beat Villanova twice and with their versatility and the balanced roster, they can play with anyone in the league. That versatility showed in the game against the Blue Raiders, as Butler surprised their foes with an excellent zone defense that confused their opponents and disrupted their game plan.
In what’s the most brilliant coaching move this season, Butler limited the athleticism of Middle Tennessee and held their scorers to 43.9 percent shooting. Three Blue Raiders starters failed to score a single point. On the offensive side, Butler showed balance as well. Keland Martin led all scorers with 19 points off the bench, and Andrew Chrabascz and Kamar Baldwin added 15 and 14 respectively. The Bulldogs shot very well, going 24of-47 from the field and hitting 53.3 percent of their threes. They had complete control of the game, leading by ten with 4 minutes to go, before the Blue Raiders tried to catch up with the late run. The Bulldogs were able to withstand it with some timely shots and will travel to Memphis to face North Carolina.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. #4 Butler Bulldogs Game Trends & Prediction
The North Carolina Tar Heels haven’t had much success against the spread as of late, covering only twice (with one push) in the last six games, but are providing for their backers for the season with 18-15-2 record. Their games usually end in under points. Tar Heels went 13-20-1, with no significant recent trends. They do average 84.5 points per game on the season and allow 70.5, so don’t read much into it. UNC faces 150+ lines frequently, but have gone 0-7 on the lines below that mark.
The line opened at -7, but more investments in Tar Heels victory have slightly lowered the odds on them. There’s no significant edge in public appeal so far, but I believe the odds on Butler will not last till the tip-off. Don’t wait too long to take the underdog. Butler is capable of winning the game, or keeping it real close as they don’t rely on a single strength. They’ll come up with a way to disrupt the Tar Heels potent attack and let the fundamentals decide the game, not the talent. The total points line suggest the under in this scenario, and the value is there, but it’s not large enough to take it. Wait to see if you can get under 154.5 -108 at the minimum.
My Pick: Butler +7/+7.5
Total: Under 153 points
