The No. 4 Florida Gators and No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers will decide whose strong postseason will continue in the Elite Eight.
Place: Madison Square Garden, New York, New York
Date/Time: Friday March 24th, 2017. 10:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: TBS
#4 Florida Gators vs. #8 Wisconsin Badgers
LINE: Florida -2 (-105); moneyline -120
Total: 131 points (-106 over, -105 under)
The Florida Gators proved to be toughest team to score on
The Florida Gators (26-8) put on one of the better defensive performances of the season, defeating Virginia Cavaliers 65-39 in the second round of the Tournament. No, that’s not a typo, they’ve held Virginia to only 39 points, 29.6% shooting from the field and 6.7% (1-15) from beyond the arc. Florida was not playing their best basketball towards the end of the regular season, but look great in the postseason so far. They’ve built a 14 point lead at the halftime and needed 10 more minute to extend it to 25. They did it with an average offensive display, shooting 46 percent from the field and just 11-of-18 on the freebies. Gators committed 10 turnovers to just 10 assists.
Leading the way for the Gators were Devin Robinson and Justin Leon who both had a double-double with 14 points each and 11 and 10 rebounds. No other player scored in double digits. KeVaughn Allen disappointed with just 4 points on 2-of-10 shooting, no rebounds and a single dime in 26 minutes.
For the season, Florida is holding their opponents to an average of 65.7 points and 40.5 percent shooting, both top 40 ranks for their defense. What often seems overlooked is that the Gators can also outscore their opponent. They shoot a solid 45 percent from the field and drop almost 8 threes a game. Their scoring average of 77.9 points per game is top 70 in the NCAA.
Seeding doesn’t matter for the Badgers
The Wisconsin Badgers showed its prowess in the opening weekend, taking down No. 9 Virginia Tech before stunning No. 1 overall seed and defending national champ Villanova in the second round. This is a disciplined and a seasoned team that was underseeded in the bracket after finishing second in the Big 10 and advancing to the conference tournament finals. No other team has made it to four consecutive Sweet 16 games, and the Badgers seem well motivated for another deep run after hurdling two very tough opponents in the first two rounds.
Wisconsin played a good first half against the Villanova Wildcats, leading by 4 at the break, but the defending champions slowly gained control in the second half. The Badgers rely on the suffocating defense, but its centerpiece Ethan Happ was marred by the foul trouble and Bronson Koenig was also forced to sit a portion of the second half. Villanova saw their chance, going hard for the offensive rebounds and second chance opportunities. The Badgers found themselves behind 50-57 before those two returned to the court. Wisconsin promptly engineered a run to tie the game and set up the who-wants-it-more ending.
It was not a brilliant performance, but a gritty, stick-with-it game by the Badgers, just how they like it. They shot well from the two-point range (20-of-31), but couldn’t hit threes or free throws. Wisconsin also committed 14 turnovers and their bench contributed with total of 3 points. They’ve won with amazing attention to defensive details that has been their forte this entire season. They allow just 61.8 points per game, 11th best mark in the NCAA. Their opponents shoot just 42.9 percent inside the arc. On the offense, the Wisconsin Badgers are powered by Koenig, Happ and Hayes, who take majority of the Badgers shots and all score around 14 points per game. As a team, Wisconsin averages an unimpressive 72.1 points, a number mostly hurt by their awful percentage from the charity stripe (.643, good for 336th in the league).
#4 Florida Gators vs. #8 Wisconsin Badgers Game Trends & Prediction
Investing in the Florida Gators won’t disappoint you, as they’ve covered in 19 of their 32 games this season. After a bad end of the winter, the Gators covered in both tournament games. Unsurprisingly, unders are more common on their games. This season, Florida record against the over/under is 14-18. Five of the last six games were unders (one of them with an overtime).
The Wisconsin Badgers covered in 5 of the last six games, bringing them to a 17-16 ATS record. They are more predictable on the unders despite going against the lines in low 130s or less. For the season, they’ve gone 13-17-3 against the O/U line.
It’s the Sweet 16 matchup I hate. Both of these teams should advance. The books are slightly favoring the Gators, and that’s hard to object to as they do have a better point differential. Neither of the teams has a significant edge in momentum and this will be a game of two teams that equally hard to score on. No bet on the spread for me, but I’ll take the under.
My Pick: Pass
Total: Under 131.5 points
