The college basketball season gears up for its signature event, the NCAA Tournament. Which high seeds are in particular trouble in the wake of the announcement of the brackets? A lot of people have the Oregon Ducks in that conversation after they suffered a key injury to their frontcourt. Without Chris Boucher, a lot of people are wondering if the Ducks might be liable to suffer an early exit. Remember, Boucher was an excellent shot blocker and was a double-digit scorer; that’s tough to replace. However, Oregon isn’t on our list of teams that might exit the NCAA Tournament early. One could choose multiple high seeds in the same region, but for purposes of differentiation, here is one vulnerable high seed in each region in the NCAA Tournament:
East Region: Baylor
This is not just a product of the fact that Duke and Villanova are better teams. In fact, vulnerability as a high seed doesn’t really apply to matchups in which one team faces a higher seed in the tournament. A vulnerable high seed is properly understood as a team which could easily lose to a lower seed in the tournament. Baylor definitely fits that category. The Bears have been treading water over their last 11 games, losing a majority of them, including a quarterfinal loss in the Big 12 Tournament to Kansas State, a team which defeated the Bears twice over the past six weeks. Baylor has been slowed down by an injury to point guard Manu Lecomte. He played against Kansas State but was not supremely effective. Baylor has players who are struggling to score and give Lecomte the help he needs. Unless Johnathan Motley can really step up, expect Baylor to play a very close first-round game against New Mexico State. A second-round game against SMU would be very challenging as well, if it happens.
West Region: Florida State
This is a team which many people will pick to lose in the first round. Florida State has not been a great defensive team this season. Past Florida State teams – back when the program made the 2011 Sweet 16 and then got a number three seed in the 2012 NCAA Tournament – were excellent on defense and poor on offense. This 2017 team is basically the opposite. Florida State can score, but its defense just isn’t that tight. Dwayne Bacon and other scorers on this team do not give enough attention to their defensive performances. In the first round, Florida Gulf Coast – a high-flying team which averages more than four dunks per game and loves to push the pace – could easily outscore the Seminoles in a shootout. Florida State is highly talented, but the Seminoles have not been sharp in road or neutral-court games. Florida Gulf Coast will have the support of every non-Florida State fan in Orlando. At the NCAA Tournament, the neutral fans root for the underdog or the Cinderella.
South Region: Kentucky
The Wildcats know that they could soon face a huge challenge. The first round against Northern Kentucky will not be a problem, but if Wichita State is the second-round opponent, the Wildcats could be sweating. Wichita State is ranked in the top 15 of the nation by the Ken Pomeroy ranking system, known in shorthand as “KenPom.” Wichita State rates favorably among members of the analytics crowd, so by that standard, Kentucky could be facing a team with equivalent achievements, even though the difference in seeds is eight (Kentucky is second, Wichita State tenth).
Midwest Region: Louisville
This is a team which got a brutal second-round draw. Oklahoma State is not a piece of cake, but if Michigan beats OSU, that’s probably the worst second-round draw of any team seeded in the top two, with the possible exception of Wichita State for Kentucky. Michigan is on a roll, and Derrick Walton is playing like the best point guard in the country. Even though Rick Pitino is an excellent coach, he will have his hands full with the skilled offensive players Michigan brings to the table. Michigan coach John Beilein is also a very strong coach in his own right.
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