After getting a scare from their first round opponents, the Gonzaga Bulldogs and the Northwestern Wildcats can enter their matchup a bit more relaxed. First round exit is a nightmare for most March Madness teams, but come Saturday, both teams will have its eyes on the big prize – a trip to San Jose and the Sweet 16. The winner of this game will have 5 days to prepare for the next opponent, which will be decided between Notre Dame and West Virginia.
Place: Vivint Smart Home Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah
Date/Time: Saturday March 18th, 2017. 05:15 PM ET
TV Coverage: CBS
#1 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. #8 Northwestern Wildcats
LINE: Gonzaga -10.5 (-106)
Total: 135.5 points (-118 over, +104 under)
Bulldogs win but don’t silence doubters
The Gonzaga Bulldogs (33-1) started off with the win, but it was not as comfy as the result shows, nor as expected. South Dakota lost by 20, but came true to their words, putting in a good effort for the most part of the game only to be undone by superior Zags talent. For their part, the Bulldogs showed no signs of panic during the close match, continued to put pressure on the rivals. They focused to stop the main threat of Mike Daum and managed to limit his stamp on the game, holding him 8 points below his average. Gonzaga has a good quality of playing on both sides of the court and it helped them in this game. The shots weren’t falling for Zags, but they clamped down on defense and ultimately broke away to win 66-46.
The Bulldogs shot only 39% from the field, going 8-30 from the deep and only 8-18 on free throws, so it was not an impressive performance in all. Jordan Matthews led them with 16 points and Zach Collins was great off the bench with 10 points, 6 rebounds, 4 on the offensive end, and 3 blocks, while others failed to contribute as much as it was expected. They’ll need more than one good and one so-so performance if they are serious about making a deep run, as South Dakota is far from a team that plays lock down D.
Northwestern continues to re-write school history
Wild finishes are what epitomizes March Madness, but getting a welcome to the party gift from Vanderbilt was not what anyone could have expected. Not that the Northwestern Wildcats didn’t earn their 68-66 victory in the first round, as they’ve built 15 points lead and had the ball being one point down in the last 20 seconds of the game, when Commodores’ guard Fisher-Davis inexplicably lost track of the score and intentionally fouled Bryant McIntosh and sent him to the line. McIntosh calmly knocked both free throws and the Wildcats won and advanced.
McIntosh was also the best player on the court, scoring 25 points on very efficient shooting (10-16 on field goals, 3-5 on threes and 2-2 from the stripe), getting help from center Derek Pardon (14 points, 11 rebounds) and guard Scottie Lindsey (14 points 5 rebounds). Northwestern tightened their rotation and all the starters played more than 30 minutes. They were the better team on Thursday, but showed inexperience in letting the Commodores back into the game. It almost cost them a game despite a frenetic support from their fans.
The Wildcats shot 49 percent from the field and 6-12 on three, but missed 8 out of 18 free throws. They’ve also won the rebounding battle, 37-30 and limited Commodores to just 38.2% shooting.
#1 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. #8 Northwestern Wildcats Game Trends & Prediction
The books are again trying to limit bets on Gonzaga by setting a large spread. To remind you, the Bulldogs are 22-8-1 ATS for the season and the market adjusted. With the under in the last game, Gonzaga’s record in regard to over/under is now 15-16.
The Northwestern Wildcats have also earned you money with their 20-12 ATS record. They’ve covered in 5 of their last 7 games, but they were also blown out by Wisconsin. Their last 4 games ended up with an over and they failed to hold their opponents under 60 points in the last 10 games. For the season, Northwestern was more of an under team with 12-18-2 score, so the recent streak shows intentional odd setting adjustment.
The Bulldogs are going to be a public bet once again. This team lost only once the whole season and most people didn’t see their poor performance in the first round. There’s no doubt that Gonzaga is the better team in this matchup and I’ve backed them in the first round, so you could expect that I’m going to ride the wave again. I also had Vanderbilt to advance, but the spread just isn’t where I expected it to be. The Wildcats can stay in the game with the Bulldogs if they underperform again and they are surely showing some Big Dance jitters. It’s unlikely to happen, but I’m going to hunt Gonzaga on -10.5 -106 to place a wager. There is some early over action on the set total line (135.5) as the bookmakers overreacted to the first Bulldogs’ game. The line should be around 140 so grab the over while you still can.
My Pick: Gonzaga -10.5 -106
Total: Over 135.5 points -118
