In what’s probably the toughest matchup of the second round, the No.2 Arizona Wildcats will square it off against the No.7 Saint Mary’s Gaels. Both teams have put a strong display in their previous games and are hungry for more.
Place: Vivint Smart Home Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah
Date/Time: Saturday March 18th, 2017. 07:45 PM ET
TV Coverage: CBS
#2 Arizona Wildcats vs. #7 Saint Mary’s Gaels
LINE: Arizona -4 (-110); moneyline -175
Total: 132 points (-108 over, -105 under)
Freshman Lauri Markkanen lifts the Wildcats pass North Dakota
The Arizona Wildcats vs. North Dakota game was as entertaining as advertised. The game was played at a frantic pace and both teams found plenty of easy scoring opportunities. The Arizona Wildcats (31-4) prevailed due to superior talent and poured 100 points in an easy win. They were better in every aspect of the game, shooting 58 percent from the field and winning the rebounding battle.
Lauri Markkanen was very efficient, as he sent home 8-12 field goals for 20 points and credited his teammates for plenty open looks. Fellow freshman Rawle Alkins also poured in 20 points and was 8-8 from the field, including two triples. The Wildcats played relaxed and smooth, swiftly moving the ball to an open player. They were a bit too relaxed on defense, especially in transition where they failed to cover the eager Fighting Hawks. This is not an aberration as the Wildcats tend to give up a lot of baskets and the game was beyond any doubt for the most part, so don’t read too much into it.
St. Mary’s Gaels present a different type of challenge. Open threes are tougher to find and it’s highly unlikely that they’ll accept the Arizona Wildcats pace the way North Dakota did. The Wildcats will also be tested on the interior defense and must match Gaels intensity in order to progress.
Gaels confident against VCU
Saint Mary’s (29-4) disposed off the VCU Rams 85-77 but they haven’t done it without a sweat. The Gaels were impressive in the first half but the shots stopped falling in the second half, they got sloppy with the ball and had to fight off Rams comeback attempt. This was a game of good stretches and bad stretches for the Gaels, and they’ll need a full game of effort against Arizona. The Rams drove aggressively to the rim in the first 8 minutes and made six layups on the Gaels, before the Gaels finally put their usual defense together. This propelled a 14-2 spurt and the lead they wouldn’t relinquish. However, the Gaels came out of the break a bit too happy with their first half effort and promptly turned the ball over three times in quick succession. This allowed the Rams to get back into the game and Saint Mary’s needed their best effort to hold them off. Fortunately, their focus on closing down on the shooters from the deep was present and they’ve forced the Rams to miss 11 of their 13 deep shots.
Great game on the offensive side was paced by Jock Landale’s 18 points and 13 rebounds, and Joe Rahon and Calvin Hermanson chipped in 16 points apiece. For the game, they shot 55.6 percent from the field as team.
#2 Arizona Wildcats vs. #7 Saint Mary’s Gaels Game Trends & Prediction
The Arizona Wildcats 18-points win over North Dakota counts as a push, but the majority of the money was on the Wildcats as the line opened at -16.5. Regardless of whether you earned the money or not, this was the fifth straight game the Wildcats didn’t disappoint your wallet. For the season, they are now 18-14-3 against the spread and 17-17-1 against the over/under. Over was money for the fourth consecutive time.
I had Saint Mary’s and the over in the first round so it was good game for me, and they continue to provide on spread bets with seasonal records of 17-11-2 ATS and 13-17 against O/U. You’ve lost your wager on the Gaels only once if you backed them the last 8 times. This was the second consecutive time they’ve allowed 70+ points after not allowing 60 the previous 6 games.
The key to this game is on who will adjust to the other’s game better. The Gaels are more physical team with slower tempo and patience on the attack, while Arizona Wildcats will push the ball up the court and rely on their quickness and talent. I can’t see much between the two teams so as usual, I’m happy to take the points. That said, I suggest waiting for the game day as the public bets will like improve the odds on Saint Mary’s. I’m also going with the over as 132 line looks like a typo given recent team trends.
My Pick: Saint Mary’s +4/+4.5
Total: Over 132 points
