NCAAF Picks: Although the Kentucky Wildcats are much improved and on the upswing they got a devastating reality check last week in their blowout loss at LSU. The Mississippi State Bulldogs are in rarified air as the top team in all the land with a Heisman Trophy contending QB.
The Wildcats will host the Bulldogs at Commonwealth Stadium on Saturday with coverage on CBS starting at 3:30 PM ET. Mississippi State opened as a 12-point favorite.
Mullen a Dream Season in Starkville
Mississippi State is 6-0 straight up, 5-1 against the spread, and 3-3 on totals. The Bulldogs are coming off a bye week that followed a 38-23 home payout over Auburn. QB Dak Prescott has a 165.5 QB rating with a 14-4 TD-INT ratio and is the Bulldogs leading ball carrier at 5.4 yards per carry with eight TD’s. Head coach Dan Mullen is now celebrated as a coach of the year candidate after being on a very hot seat just one year ago. While Mississippi State ranks 10th in the nation for overall offense their defense ranks a worrisome 90th in the country.
Ouch!
Kentucky is 5-2 both SU and ATS and 4-3 over the total after being mauled at LSU in a 41-3 loss. Head coach Mark Stoops has made remarkable strides in less than two seasons but the talent is not stocked at a championship level for the SEC as of yet.
Matchup and Pick
Kentucky has covered the spread in five out of their last eight home games with nine out of their last 14 home games going under the total.
Mississippi State has been a strong betting value in away games with six payouts in their last eight away games. The Bulldogs have gone under the total in five out of their last eight away games.
Mississippi State has covered the spread in six out of their last seven games against Kentucky with five out of the last seven games between the Bulldogs and Wildcats going under the total. Mississippi State has come away with the money in their last four visits to Kentucky with three out of their last five visits to Commonwealth Stadium going under the total. Mississippi State and under the total is the call.
