NCAAF Picks: The Mississippi State Bulldogs are in the midst of the greatest season in team history with a No. 1 ranking and a top-tier Heisman Trophy candidate in QB Dak Prescott. The Arkansas Razorbacks are vastly improved in head coach Brett Bielema’s second year on the job but are yet to show a Southeastern Conference win for their efforts.
The Bulldogs will host the Razorbacks on Saturday at Davis Wade Stadium with coverage on ESPN2 starting at 7:15 PM ET. Mississippi State opened as a 12-point favorite.
Ground Hogs Continue Pig Out
Arkansas is 4-4 straight up, 6-2 against the spread, and 6-2 over the total. The Razorbacks are coming off a 45-17 home win over Alabama Birmingham. Arkansas ranks 16th in the nation for rushing offense, 16th for scoring offense, and 40th for total defense.
Public Takes Notice
Mississippi State is 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS, and 4-3 over the total after a 45-31 win at Kentucky in which the Bulldogs failed to cover as 14.5 point chalks as public betting money has begun to flow their way. The Bulldogs rank ninth in the nation for total offense and 24th for rushing defense which matches up well with Arkansas. Prescott has a 15-5 TD-INT ratio and is averaging nine yards per pass attempt. Josh Robinson is the Bulldogs top ball carrier at 7.3 yards per carry with 10 TD’s.
Matchup and Pick
Arkansas has shown improvement as a betting commodity on the road with Brett Bielema. The Hogs have paid out in four out of their last five away games with 11 out of their last 14 road tilts going over the total.
Mississippi State has shown strong betting value at home with 10 payouts in their last 16 home games. The Bulldogs have gone under the total in six out of their last eight home games.
Mississippi State has covered the spread in their last two meetings with Arkansas. The Hogs and Dogs have gone over the total in six out of their last seven meetings. Miss State has come away with the money in five out of their last six home games against Arkansas with the last three meetings between the Razorbacks and Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium going over the total. We’ll call for Mississippi State (-12) and over the total.
