NCAAF Picks: Last year in their miracle run to the BCS National Championship Game part of the magic for the Auburn Tigers was a win in the final moments against the Georgia Bulldogs on a 73 yard TD pass from Nick Marshall to Ricardo Louis based in part on Lady Luck and busted UGA pass coverage. The Bulldogs have not forgotten that moment and now have a shot at sweet revenge.
The Georgia Bulldogs will host the Auburn Tigers at Sanford Stadium on Saturday night with coverage on ESPN starting at 7:15 PM ET. Georgia opened as a 2.5-point favorite.
Lady Luck Takes a Powder
Auburn is 7-2 straight up, 4-5 against the spread, and 6-3 over the total. The Tigers fumbled away a 41-38 home loss to Texas A&M last week as 23.5 point favorites in a game that went the mirror opposite of all of their lucky wins since Gus Malzahn took over as coach. Auburn’s defense that ranks 60th overall in the nation put the Tigers in an early 14-0 hole from which they never dug out of. It is that lack of a dominant defense that will ultimately cost them a shot at the Final Four playoff.
Angry Junkyard Dawgs
Georgia responded to their ugly 38-20 loss to Florida with a 63-31 payout at Kentucky last week. The Bulldogs are now 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS, and 8-1 over the total. Georgia ranks seventh in the nation for scoring offense and 22nd for total defense.
Matchup and Pick
Georgia has been a poor betting value at home with just three payouts in their last 11 home games. The Bulldogs have gone over the total in 12 out of their last 14 home games. Quarterback Hutson Mason has been a solid game manager with a 69 percent completion rate and a 15-to-3 TD-INT ratio. Running back Nick Chubb has averaged 6.7 yards per carry in place of the suspended Todd Gurley.
Auburn, conversely, has been a solid betting value on the road. The Tigers have paid out in seven out of their last 10 away games with five out of their last nine away games going over the total.
Georgia has covered the spread in five out of their last eight games against Auburn with just two out of the last six meetings between the Tigers and Bulldogs going over the total. Georgia has covered their last three home games with Auburn with just one out of the last four games between Auburn and Georgia at Sanford Stadium going under the total.
We’ll make the revenge call with Georgia and under the total.
