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NCAAF Picks: Boston College Tries To Find A Successful Plan Against USC

The Boston College Eagles couldn’t solve the Pittsburgh Panthers at home last Friday night. The Eagles welcome the USC Trojans for a Saturday night game. Can they bounce back?

USC Trojans @ Boston College Eagles

Saturday, September 13th – 8:05 PM ET

Odds: USC -17

Why The Trojans Will Cover

They are the much better team, and what’s more is that they were a far better team last season even though they struggled in subsequent games. Last year, USC played Boston College before the season went downhill for the Trojans, causing then-head coach Lane Kiffin to be fired by athletic director Pat Haden. USC won easily, 35-7, dominating the game from the start. The Trojans gained nine more first downs and over 320 more yards. USC held Boston College to just 83 passing yards, and the Trojans limited Boston College’s Heisman Trophy finalist, Andre Williams, to 38 yards on 17 carries, one of his few bad games of the season. USC won the time of possession battle by over 13 minutes. It converted 5 of 10 third downs while Boston College went only 4 of 13 in that same statistic. USC dominated, and again, this was not a very good USC team. It struggled afterward and failed to live up to its potential. Boston College also had a decent team last year, because Williams was able to run the ball so well in Atlantic Coast Conference games. Williams is no longer with the team this year; he has moved on. USC will look at a Boston College offense that just doesn’t have a place to turn to. It’s going to be very hard to see how the Eagles are going to score much against a USC defense that limited a powerful Stanford team to only 10 points this past Saturday. This just looks like an awful matchup for Boston College on every possible level.

Why The Eagles Will Cover

If the Eagles have a chance in this game, it’s because USC’s offense did not look very good at all against Stanford. The Trojans scored just 13 points, and the final three points, the ones which won the game for USC, came on a 53-yard field goal. USC was just not able to finish drives. It showed some promise here and there, but it moved the ball between the 30-yard lines and was not able to travel those final 30 yards except for one time, scoring only one touchdown on the day. If Boston College can prevent the big play and can stiffen in the red zone a bunch of times, USC will have to settle for a number of field goals and might score something like 16 to 19 points. If Boston College can find two really big plays that go for 70-yard touchdowns or something like that, and it can get a big special teams play that also scores a touchdown, it could win a 21-19 game.

Outlook

The Boston College victory scenario is such a remote one. USC’s offense should be able to eventually wear down Boston College’s defense and pull away from the Eagles.

Pick: USC -17

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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